Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-2.5) vs Cincinnati

Houston’s vaunted defense was picked apart last week but Josh Allen in a 31-36 home loss to the Bills. However, given Buffalo’s dominance on Thursday night against Detroit maybe that has more to do with how good the Bills’ offense is rather than how much the Texans’ defense may have regressed.

The positive news is that the Texans’ offense looked pretty good (+0.07 EPA per play despite -12.03 EPA on turnover plays). The negative news is that top WR Nico Collins has been downgraded to OUT this week. Houston has a better group of complimentary receivers than they did last season by adding Kayshon Boutte, who has averaged 9.6 yards on 123 career targets. The other two wide receivers, Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel, combined for just 7.8 YPT last season, but that’s not too much worse than average.

The Houston offense will likely need to play well in this game, as the Bengals are also capable of making a good defense look bad. Cincinnati has averaged 27.7 points in 26 games since the start of the 2024 season when Joe Burrow has been at quarterback. The Bengals were certainly not at their best in their 33-27 win over Tampa Bay, as the offense registered a slightly negative EPA for the game with a modest 5.6 yards per play average (although their 46.8% success rate was better than average).

Cincy’s defense was more lucky than good, as the Bengals recovered 4 Buccaneers’ fumbles (and still gave up 27 points). Tampa lost 20.7 points due to those 4 fumbles but had the 10^th best non-turnover EPA per play and a 47.1% success rate (44.3% is average).

My ratings favor Houston by 1.5 points with a total of 46.9 points. I won’t lean over because Texans’ coach DeMeco Ryans is 28-10-1 Under in games when the total is higher than 41 points, including 9-2 Under after his team went over the previous week.