Game Analysis

Lean – Indianapolis (+6.5) over KANSAS CITY

Bringing back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and adding running back Kenneth Walker may have revitalized the Chiefs’ offense after 3 relatively down seasons under OC Matt Nagy. Kansas City averaged 6.2 yards per play (excluding kneel downs) despite the steady 15 to 20 mph and you’d expect that offense to perform well again versus a Colts’ defense that gave up over 500 yards at 8.5 yppl in a 23-41 loss to the Ravens.

Kansas City also has an advantage when the Colts have the ball, as DC Steve Spagnuolo has molded another fine defense despite losing 5 starters from last year’s unit, including both cornerbacks. The Chiefs yielded just 176 yards at 3.7 yppl to the Broncos, who couldn’t overcome the weather, and they are better than a Colts’ offense that managed just 251 yards at 4.7 yppl against a good Ravens’ stop unit.

My ratings favor KC by 7.3 points, with a total of 46.0 points, but the Colts apply to a 51-21-1 ATS week 2 bounce-back situation based on last week’s blowout home loss and the Chiefs apply to a 97-189-14 ATS early season home favorite situation that is 12-41-6 ATS in week 2. I’ll lean with Indy based on the situation.