Game Analysis

Lean – Cleveland (+8.5) over TAMPA BAY

It pains me to back Cleveland given how bad their offense continues to be, but the Browns apply to a very good 151-51-5 ATS situation that is based on their blowout loss at Jacksonville (that situation is 11-2 ATS in week 2). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, applies to a 52-119-5 ATS situation that is based on their loss to the Bengals.

The Buccaneers lost that game 27-33 because they fumbled the ball away 4 times, as they had a higher total EPA excluding the turnover plays for each team (turnover plays resulted in a net +13.2 points for Cincy).

The Browns had the worst net success rate in the league in week 1 but the situation suggests that they’ll play better this week.

My ratings favor Tampa Bay by 9.2 points with a total of 41.8 points, but I’ll lean with the Browns.