Game Analysis

1 Unit – DENVER (-2.5) over Jacksonville

Denver was terrible in a 10-31 Monday night loss to an improved Chiefs team. The Broncos new big play WR Jaylen Waddle was not utilized in the windy conditions (just 3 targets for 1 2-yard catch and a drop). Denver is not suddenly a bad team and head coach Sean Payton’s teams are 64-39-3 ATS in regular season games the next week after a loss, including 16-3 ATS if his offense scored fewer than 13 points in that loss (5-0 ATS with Denver).

Jacksonville beat up on a horrible Browns team, but I still think the Jaguars are overrated. The Jagaurs went 13-4 last season despite outgaining their opponents by just 0.2 yards per play (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl). The Jaguars benefited from a +13 turnover margin, led the NFL in points off turnovers and had a good record in close games – all of which are likely to regress. Jacksonville projects as barely better than an average team entering this season, although last week’s performance did up their rating a bit.

My ratings favor Denver by 2.3 points (and 44.7 total points) with Broncos’ edge rusher Jonathon Cooper still suspended but the situation is very favorable for the home team playing at altitude. Playing in Denver is tough on visiting teams early in the season when players are still rounding into playing shape and the Broncos are 17-4-3 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season when not laying more than 3 points. Jacksonville, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 58-139-5 ATS road letdown situation.

Denver is a 1 unit play at -2.5 -115 or better and a 0.5 unit play up to -3 -110.