Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs Detroit

The Lions’ managed to survive a comeback bid against the Saints in a 31-30 overtime win but they’ll need to play much better to win on the road against a very good Bills team that will be breaking in their new stadium.

Detroit’s defense played about as expected last week against the Saints. New Orleans averaged 6.2 yards per pass play, which is about what I expected with the Lions missing both starting safeties, and Detroit allowed just 3.6 yards per run.

The Lions’ defense is below average without safeties Branch and Joseph, who are both the PUP list to start the season, and Josh Allen is certainly more capable of taking advantage of that weakness than Tyler Shough. Allen averaged 10.4 yards per pass play last week against an elite Houston defense and his average depth of target against the Texans was 12.8 yards, which was significantly higher than last season’s 7.6 aDOT.

I see no reason why Allen won’t continue to push the ball down the field against a defense that is without their two starting safeties and allowed 8.4 air yards per reception last week (5.8 CAY/comp was the NFL average last season). It’s also possible that top CB D.J. Reed may miss this game, as a foot injury has placed him on the injury report as questionable.

Detroit’s offense was a bit better than average in EPA per play and had the exact same success rate last week as they had last season. That’s not bad against what could be another solid Saints’ defense. New Orleans is expected to have a worse than average defense this season but going into the 2025 season the Saints were projected to be in the bottom-5 defensively and ended up #10 in the league in EPA per play and success rate allowed under defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Staley’s only other season as a DC was with the 2020 Rams, who had the NFL’s best defense that season. More was expected from the Lions’ offense last week but maybe Staley’s defense will defy low expectations again this season, in which case there is nothing wrong with Detroit’s week 1 performance.

There is some concern playing on a short week with two week 1 starting offensive linemen, LG Mahogony and RT Miller, both out and C Cade Mays on IR. None of those players are significantly valuable compared to their backups but depth is an issue and I’ve docked the Lions 0.8 points for those injuries.

Detroit should still be good offensively against a Buffalo defense that I had rated as a below-average defense heading into the season and allowed 7.9 yards per play and 31 points to a mediocre Houston attack.

My ratings favor Buffalo by 4.3 points with a total of 54.5 total points (with the low wind factored in) but the Lions are in a bad situation playing with less than normal rest after an overtime game. In fact, teams that play on Thursday after a Sunday or Monday overtime game are just 5-25 ATS (if the other team did not play OT). I’m assuming Lions’ top CB Reed will play, as about 70% of players listed as questionable in the NFL have played. I’ll pass this game but I used the Bills in my spread pool.