Game Analysis

Lean – Under (43.5) – Carolina (-2.5) at ATLANTA

Cooper Rush has been named the starter at quarterback for a second straight week for the Falcons with Penix and Tua both out. I’m seeing some value on the Falcons even after adjusting 3.8 points for the Falcon’s quarterback situation.

Rush really struggled last week against a good Pittsburgh defense (12 of 22 with 2 interceptions and only 4.5 yards per pass play) but his 5.2 adjusted net yards per pass play (excluding garbage time) in his career is not terrible for a backup quarterback. Carolina’s defense should be much easier to navigate, as the Panthers just gave up 59 points on 552 total yards at 7.9 yards per play to the Bears.

Carolina’s offense played much better than expected in that 22-point loss, as the Panthers scored 37 points on 478 yards at 7.7 yards per play. However, Bryce Young only completed 62% of his passes last week and he’s not going to continue to average 15.7 yards per completion as he did against the Bears (9.9 ypc last season and 9.9 ypc in his career). Had Young averaged 10 yards per completion then he would have been at 5.8 yards per pass play, which is about what I expected him to be at this season (and is still below the league average).

I still rate the Panthers as below average on offense and they are obviously still below average defensively and aren’t good enough to be favored on the road, even with a backup quarterback going for the Falcons.

Carolina is 1-16-1 ATS and 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games when favored by more than 1 point, including 0-3 ATS last season, but the Panthers also apply to a 37-8 ATS week 2 bounce-back situation.

My ratings favor Carolina by 1.3 points with 41.4 total points (with Rush at QB for ATL) and I’ll lean under the total. I should note that teams that score more than 35 points in a game with 65 or more total points in week 1 (that would be Carolina) are 34-18-1 Under is week 2 and 52.6% under after such a game in all weeks on over 800 qualifying games in my database.