Game Analysis

Note: I released this game earlier in the week when the total was 49.5 points. The total has dropped but the Under is still a 1 Unit play at 48 points or more and 0.5 Units Under 47.5 points.

1 Unit- Under (49.5) – CHICAGO (-5.5) vs Minnesota

The Bears beat Carolina 59-37 but there has been an overreaction to that high scoring opener. The offense obviously played a great game, but they’re not likely to go from being the 8th or 9th best offense in the league (8th in EPA/play, 9th in success rate and points per game) to the best offense of all-time, as head coach Ben Johnson has stated as his goal. I have the Bears rated as the 3rd best offense in the league behind Buffalo and Baltimore and I don’t expect a shootout this week against a good Vikings’ defense and a DC in Brian Flores that has kept Caleb Williams and company in check.

Minnesota ranked #4 in the league in EPA/play allowed, #3 in yards allowed, and #5 in success rate allowed in 2025 and the Vikings’ defense played well last week against a good Packers’ offense aside from one 81-yard touchdown catch and run. Minnesota held Green Bay to a 38.8% success rate, which would have ranked 3rd in the league last season, and a -0.17 EPA per play despite that big play.

Last season, Flores’ defense allowed just 21.5 points and 318.5 total yards per game to the Bears (and just 19.5 ppg to Chicago/Williams in ’24, although with a different Bears’ coaching staff). The Vikings have been an under team since Flores became their DC (31-21-1 Under, including 24-14-1 Under 42 points or higher) and they’ve gone under in 8 of their last 9 games against an opponent coming off a better than average offensive performance (24 points or more). Chicago, meanwhile, were 7-2 Under last season after scoring more than 24 points, including 5-1 Under after scoring 30 or more points while scoring 25 points or fewer in all 6 of those games. Last week was impressive, but the Bears are not likely to follow that up with another high-scoring performance.

Minnesota also isn’t likely to put up a ton of points, as they try to slow things down. The Vikings have slowed their pace each season under offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, who ran a blazing fast pace of 2.25 plays per minute of possession in his first season in 2022. That number went down to 2.21 ppm in 2023 then to 2011 ppm in 2024 and down to 2.05 ppm last season (2.13 ppm is average). Last week the Vikings averaged just 1.88 plays per minute. Chicago is a fast-paced team, which balances out the Vikings’ slow pace, but this isn’t likely to be a typical Bears game with more possessions than normal.

Carson Wentz will be at quarterback in place of Kyler Murray. Murray was knocked out of last week’s games early in the 1st quarter with a concussion and has been rule for this game. While Wentz is a quality backup that’s been a starter in his career, he projects to be about 1.5 points per game worse than Kyler Murray. Minnesota averaged -0.02 EPA per play and had just a 35.6% success rate while playing very conservatively. They managed to score 39 points on just 258 total yards (29th of 32 teams) because they were much better than expected on third downs and in redzone efficiency, which is random.

Chicago’s defense was not good last season (aside from all the turnovers) and they certainly weren’t good last week against the Panthers (7.7 yards per play and a 48.4% success rate allowed), but the market tends to overreact a bit to high scoring games. The under hits 52.6% of the time on over 800 games since 1980 if one of the teams scored more than 35 points in a game with 65 or more total points the previous week – including 34-18-1 Under in week 2. That’s not the reason I like the under though. I just mentioned it to prove my point that overreacting to one week is not a good idea.

I like the under because Flores is a good defensive coach and my updated ratings project just 44 total points (and favor the Bears by 5.8 points) in what looks like bad conditions for scoring in Chicago in the early afternoon (winds in the teens, and possibly rain, on a grass field against a division opponent with familiarity of each other’s offense). Under 48 points or higher is a 1 Unit play and 0.5 Units Under 47.5 points.