Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41) – Seattle (-4.5) at ARIZONA

I wasn’t as down on Arizona heading into the season as most, as quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a capable quarterback with a historically low interception rate (1.4% is the best all-time) and the defense projected to be just 2 points worse than average. Brissett was decent last season, as his adjusted net yards per pass play, which takes into account touchdown passes, interceptions, and sacks, was just 0.1 ANYPP below the league average. Brissett was certainly good last week in the upset win over the Chargers, as he completed 27 of 37 passes for 7.3 yards per pass play with no interceptions in the new offense. Brissett has elite TE Trey McBride to throw to (9 receptions last week) and WR Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 passes thrown to him for 9.4 yards per target after averaging 10.4 YPT last season with the 49ers (and a good 8.9 YPT on 490 targets in his career). The Cardinals’ rushing attack was lacking a bit but averaging 0.14 EPA per play with a 49.3% success rate against a better than average Chargers’ defense is a very good start to the season.

The defense also played well, as the Cardinals’ yielded just 268 yards at 5.3 yards per play with just 39.2% success rate to a Chargers’ attack that much was expected from this season (including by myself).

Seattle overcame the loss of starting quarterback Sam Darnold and rallied to beat the Patriots 13-10 last Wednesday and the extra time to game plan for backup Drew Lock should help. Lock played well (7.8 yards per pass play with zero interceptions) and the offense averaged 5.9 yards per play against a good Patriots’ defense but I still project Lock to be 3.6 points worse than Darnold.

The Seahawks’ defense dominated an overrated Patriots’ offense (just 4.1 yppl) just like they did in the Super Bowl and I expect they’ll do a good job against the Cardinals’ attack now that they’ve got some tape to study (which the Chargers didn’t).

My ratings favor Seattle by 3.4 points with a total of 39.4 points and I lean under based on a 44-17 week 2 Under angle and some line value.