Game Analysis

Lean – Under (44.5) – Green Bay (-3.5) at NY JETS

The Packers did not look good on offense last week. Green Bay registered a very low 38.8% success rate, which would have ranked 3^rd worst in the league last season, and had a -0.17 EPA per play despite having a huge EPA play (an 81-yard touchdown catch and run). The defense, meanwhile, was better than average in EPA per play allowed and had the 4^th best success rate in the league against the Vikings and their backup quarterback Carson Wentz (he’s a better than average backup though). The Packers may have won had it not been for the turnovers and the game should have been much lower scoring than it was (61 total points but just 39 projected based on success rates and even less based on EPA).

The Jets had an easy 23-10 win in Nashville against the Titans. New York’s offense was very efficient with veteran quarterback Geno Smith seemingly putting last year’s disaster with the Raiders behind him. Prior to last season, Smith was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and he completed 19 of 24 passes last week with a completion percentage over expected of +12.8% (5^th best in week 1).

New York’s defense held a horrible Tennessee offense to -0.12 EPA per play and a 44.9% success rate, but the Titans averaged -0.16 EPA per play with a 37.4% success rate last season. The Jets’ defense performed better than expected but the Titans were expected to be significantly improved offensively. If that’s not actually the case, then the Jets are still below average defensively. Time will tell.

Star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was injured last week and will sit out this game. I’ve adjusted 0.7 points for his absence.

The Jets’ offense played at an extremely slow pace, as they ran just 58 plays in 36:04 time of possession (1.61 plays per minute), excluding their final possession when they ran out the clock. The first half, which is more indicative of the pace, had the Jets run 37 plays in 21:12 TOP (1.75 ppm). I don’t expect the pace to be that slow going forward but I’m projecting a slower than average pace for the Jets.

The Packers’ offense has had the slowest neutral pace in the league under head coach and play-caller Mike LaFleur the last 5 seasons, although he was only 0.3 seconds per play slower than average last season and played at a faster than average neutral situation pace last week.

My ratings favor Green Bay by 3.2 points with 44.5 total points taking the injuries (mainly Fitzpatrick) and the expected bad weather into account. The line is fair, but this game applies to a 93-52-4 Under angle.