Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-13) vs Miami

I’m not going to overreact to the 49ers’ dominating win over the Rams, as the circumstance of that game in Australia, including how each team decided to address travel, could have had an impact on the Rams’ sleepy performance.

However, Miami was easily my lowest rated team heading into the season and losing by 14 points to the Raiders indicates that they could be even worse than I thought. The Dolphins’ offense had a -11.8 total offensive EPA against a mediocre at best Raiders’ defense and limiting the Raiders to 4.6 yards per play (excluding kneel downs) might be more of a sign of how bad the Vegas offense is without Brock Bowers – although I did adjust the Dolphins’ defense up a bit.

San Francisco could probably name the score here and my ratings favor the Niners by 13.7 points (with 46.6 total points), but last week’s dominating upset win sets up the 49ers in a negative 6-35 ATS week 2 letdown angle. I should note that San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in recent years when laying double-digits but overall the situation favors Miami, which is who I used in my spread pool.