Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-8.5) vs New Orleans

I have the Ravens rated as the best team in the league if healthy, but #1 WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) and DT Nnamdi Madubuike (out since week 3 last season) are both going to miss this game.

Baltimore’s new offense looked great last week in a 41-23 road win at Indianapolis, as they racked up 509 yards at an incredible 8.5 yards per play (excluding 3 kneel downs and a QB spike). The Ravens’ defense played well too in limiting the Colts to just 251 yards at 4.7 yppl. However, the offense would take a big hit if Flowers doesn’t play, as he’s averaged 11.0 yards per target since the beginning of last season (on 124 targets) and the other Ravens’ wide receivers are mediocre at best.

I was not as high on the Saints coming into this season as the market was and last week’s spirited comeback in an OT loss versus the Lions (and their banged up secondary) hasn’t convinced me that they’re good. The offense had a negative 1.7 total expected points added for the game and a 42.4% success rate (44.3% was average in week 1) against a Lions’ defense that was without their two starting safeties and got torched again on Thursday by the Bills.

The Saints played better than expected defensively in limiting a good Lions’ offense to a 0 EPA and a 45.2% success rate and that unit may be better than expected again under DC Brandon Staley, who greatly exceeded expectations last season with a defense that was expected to be horrible and ended up being the 10^th best defense in the league in both EPA per play allowed and success rate. I have moved the New Orleans defense to slightly better than average.

My ratings favor Baltimore by 8.8 points (and 45.4 total points) with Flowers and Madubuike both out but the Saints apply to an 87-37-1 ATS week 2 angle that is an even better 23-6 ATS more recently.