Game Analysis

0.5 Units – Washington (+4) over DALLAS

My ratings would have favored Dallas by just 4.2 points in this game prior to last week’s results and I now have the Cowboys by just 2.5 points with the Commanders in a good situation.

The Cowboys were clearly outplayed by the Giants on Sunday night in a 20-28 loss, as the Dallas were outgained by 150 yards and 4.7 yards per play to 5.8 yppl. There was nothing fluky about that, as had a net -13.8% success rate differential. I’m not concerned about the offense, and I didn’t downgrade that unit aside from the injury to elite guard Tyler Smith (0.6 points). The defense, however, gave up a 60% success rate and doesn’t appear to be as improved as projected (they were horrible last season). Some of the problems were communication and assignments being blown and that should be fixed but I still downgraded that unit and rate the Cowboys’ defense at 1.9 point per game worse than average heading into this game.

Washington, meanwhile, played better than expected in a 22-24 loss at Philadelphia. The Commanders were outgained 295 yards (at 4.4 yppl) to 318 yards (at 6.0 yppl) but they were about even in expected points added (+0.5 in total EPA and -0.01 in EPA/play) and had a significant advantage in success rate, 42.6% to 35.3% (excluding kneel downs). I expected Washington’s defense to be much better this season and that appears to be the case, although I still have that unit a bit below average despite the strong week 1 performance.

My updated ratings favor Dallas by just 2.5 points (50.5 total points) and Washington applies to an 87-37-1 ATS game 2 situation while Dallas applies to a negative 97-189-14 ATS early season home favorite angle (that is 18-57-6 ATS in week 2).

Washington is a 0.5 Unit play at +3.5 points or more.