Game Analysis

NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) vs Pittsburgh

Drake Maye played a bad game in the season opener in Seattle and his MVP-caliber 2025 season was built on the foundation of facing a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams. New England played just 5 games versus better than average defensive teams in the regular season (#4 defense Cleveland, #10 New Orleans, 2 games against #13 Buffalo, and #14 Atlanta) and while Maye played well in most of those games he really struggled in the playoffs against elite defensive teams. Maye averaged just 4.9 yards per pass play in 4 postseason games against the Chargers (#6 defense), Houston (#2), Denver (#8) and Seattle (#1).

The Patriots’ offense struggled again versus that elite Seahawks’ defense last Wednesday night and #1 WR A.J. Brown was injured and will miss some time. That leaves 3 mediocre wide receivers (Hollins, Douglas and Doubs) for Maye to throw to and I expect more running from the Pats with RB TreVeyon Henderson likely to return after missing week 1. However, the Patriots’ attack should be tested again by a good Pittsburgh defense that I have rated as the 7^th best in the league this season after a disappointing 2025 campaign.

It’s hard to know how to evaluate the Patriots’ defense in that 10-13 loss, as they faced backup quarterback Drew Lock for most of the game and still allowed 5.9 yards per play and a better than average EPA per play. I rated New England’s defense as the 6^th best heading into the season and will keep their rating the same.

That unit should be able to contain a Pittsburgh offense that ranked 30^th in EPA per play (-0.30) and worst in the league in success rate (32.8%) last week. The Steelers won that game because their defense held Atlanta to equally awful metrics and had an edge of 7.9 points in turnover plays EPA.

My ratings favor New England by 5.4 points with a total of 41.7 points, which are both basically on market. Pass.