Game Analysis

Note: The Under 44 was released early in the week and the total has dropped below 44. You can play the Raiders Team Total Under (18.5) 17.5 points or more as the alternate play if you don’t get the game Under 44.

0.5 Units – Under (44) – LA CHARGERS (-6.5) vs Las Vegas

Alternate play is 0.5 Units on the Raiders Team Total Under (18.5) 17.5 or more

Lean – LA Chargers (-6.5 -115)

The Chargers were awful last week in a 14-26 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals that knocked a lot of people out of their survivor pools. I avoided that game in all 7 of my survivor entries not because I thought the Chargers wouldn’t win but rather because so many people were taking them and I thought I’d probably use them this week, which I will in a couple of my pools.

The Chargers were outgained by 125 total yards (268 to 393) but they were only -0.2 in net yards per play 5.3 yppl to 5.5 yppl. The discrepancy between fairly even yards per play numbers and the huge yardage disadvantage comes from being -2 in turnovers and converting on just 2 of 11 3rd and 4th down plays while the Cardinals were 6 for 14 converting 3rd downs (zero 4th down plays).

I still expect the Chargers to be a good team and to improve offensively under new OC Mike McDaniel while being solid defensively again this season.

The Raiders had a comfortable win over Miami, who are by far the worst team in the league. Their defense played well in limiting the Dolphins to just 259 total yards and 42% success. The offense is a concern, however, as Las Vegas managed just 4.3 yards per play while Kirk Cousins averaged only 7.6 yards per completion and 5.3 yards per pass. The offense would get a boost if Brock Bowers plays this week, but he’s been downgraded to doubtful.

Even with Bowers the Raiders project as one of the league’s worst offensive teams and the defense, which was solid last season, appears to be decent again this year.

My ratings favor the Chargers by 7.4 points with a total of 44.6 points. The reason for the Under play is a 63-11 under situation that is 25-0 since 2004 and a 44-18-1 week 2 under angle applies to this game. I’ll lean with the Chargers, who apply to an 83-32-3 ATS bounce-back situation.

The Under is a 0.5 Unit play at 44 points or more and you can play the Raiders Team Total Under (18.5) at 17.5 or more for 0.5 Units if you didn’t get under 44 or higher.