Game Analysis

LA RAMS (-6.5) vs NY Giants

So much for the Rams unbeaten season.

Los Angeles was dominated by the 49ers 7-27 in Australia but that was such a strange circumstance that I’m not going to adjust the Rams down too much, aside from a couple of points for losing edge rusher Myles Garrett to injury.

It’s hard to say how much the Rams and Niners’ very different travel plans affected that performance, but we know what Matthew Stafford and that offense can do. It’s the Rams’ defense that I’m concerned about with Garrett out – although it looks like all time great defensive tackle Aaron Donald will suit up for the first time in two and a half years. It’s hard to say how effective Donald be and how many snaps he’ll get if he does play but he’ll surely help make up for some of the loss of Garrett when he’s in the game.

The Giants looked good in John Harbaugh’s debut, as the offense racked up nearly 400 yards with a 60% success rate, which led all teams in week 1. I’m not going to get too carried away with that performance, as converting on 90% of third down plays (excluding the game-ending kneel down) is obviously not sustainable and it could be a case of the Cowboys defense still being bad.

Defensively the Giants were better than expected but they were 27^th in the league in EPA per play allowed and 20^th in success rate allowed. That’s not bad considering how good the Cowboys’ offense is, but I still rate New York a point worse than average defensively.

My ratings favor the Rams by 5.3 points with a total of 48.0 points with star WR Puca Nacua out. This game does apply to a 78-33-1 Under angle. I’ll pass.