Game Analysis

Lean – Under (40.5) – LAS VEGAS (-3) vs Miami

Miami Preview

Miami is starting from scratch. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff and got rid of more than half of their 2025 production on both sides of the ball. The only additions are their 13 draft picks and QB Malik Willis, who was terrible in Tennessee early in his career but showed some promise last year with the Packers.

Jeff Hafley is the new head coach after spending the last two seasons as the defensive coordinator for the Packers and he brought defensive assistant Sean Duggan to be his DC with the Dolphins. The new OC is Bobby Slowik, who led a pair of mediocre offensive units in two seasons with the Texans in ’23 and ’24 and was part of last season’s offensive disappointment here in Miami as the pass game coordinator.

Miami’s offense could be decent if Malik Willis is close to as capable as he showed the last two years as the Packers’ backup. Willis completed 70 of 89 passes with no interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per pass play with Green Bay while lifting his career average to 6.6 yppp on 180 pass plays. He’s unlikely to reach that number with an unproven corps of receivers that looks like the worst unit in the NFL heading into this season. De’Von Achane is an elite running back with a career 5.6 ypr average on 544 runs, but Willis will have to be a threat to keep defenses from stacking the box to stop the run.

The Dolphins’ defense easily projects as the worst in the league. Last year’s defense allowed 24.9 points per game and 5.8 yards per play (28^th) and will be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, along with the other starters in defensive backfield, and edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who led the team in sacks (8.5). The run defense could improve upon the 4.8 ypr allowed last season but opponents should be able to attack the Dolphins through the air with ease.

Las Vegas Preview

The Raiders were a disaster last season, winning just 3 games while having the league’s worst offense. A new coaching staff was hired to turn things around and the personnel looks better.

Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach after his stint as the offensive coordinator with the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Seattle wasn’t particularly good on offense under Kubiak, but OC Andrew Janocko (Sea QB coach last season) should be an upgrade over last year’s OC and veteran Kirk Cousins should have more success than Geno Smith did last season behind a horrible offensive line and the league’s worst rushing attack.

Cousins has slipped in recent years and his sub-par performance with Atlanta last season was worse than Geno Smith’s final season in Seattle before coming to Vegas. However, Cousins should perform much better than Smith, who’s 4.4 adjusted net yards per pass play (takes into account interceptions and TD passes) was 1.3 ANYP worse than Cousin’s performance last season. Cousins also has a better offensive line in front of him, as the Raiders added former Ravens’ center Tyler Linderbaum, a pro-bowler the last 3 seasons, and get back star left tackle Kolton Miller, who played just 4 games last season.

TE Brock Bowers should be better after playing through a PCL injury and bone bruise suffered in week 1, which ultimately resulted in him missing 5 games after trying to play through the injury for a few weeks. Bowers is out for this game and he’s worth 0.8 points. The wide receivers are still rated among the worst in the league but picking up Jalen Nailor, should help, as he’s averaged 9.0 yards per target the last two seasons for the Vikings, including 8.4 YPT last season with horrible quarterback play.

The improved offensive line should also help a rush attack that was by far the league’s worst last season. The Raiders’ offense will be 3 points better if they improve to the level of last year’s second-worst rushing team.

The Raiders averaged only 14.2 points per game last season (8.8 ppg worse than average) but project to be just 3 to 4 points worse than average this season.

The Las Vegas defense wasn’t too bad last year, ranking 24^th in expected points added per play allowed and 24^th in success rate, excluding their week 18 game against Chiefs’ backup QBs. Of course, opponents spent most of the latter stages of the game trying to run out the clock with significant leads rather than throwing the ball downfield to add points. The switch to the 3-4 defense could hurt what was a very good run defense and the Raiders had just one good player in the defensive secondary (CB Eric Stokes) last season. The addition of nickel back Taron Johnson, who is an above average player, should help the pass defense improve – although safety is still a problem spot for the Raiders.

Las Vegas ranks 27^th in defensive talent but should allow fewer points per game than last season (25.4 ppg) with an improved offense that should improve field position.

Game Preview

My ratings favor the Raiders by 3.4 points with a total of 41.2 points after adjusting for elite TE Brock Bowers being out. I will lean with the under based on a 105-47-4 week 1 Under angle.