Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Preview

Tampa Bay has been living in mediocrity for the last 4 seasons, and this looks like another average team with a decent chance of winning a bad division.

Baker Mayfield thrived in 2023 and 2024 with good offensive coordinators Dave Canales (’23) and Liam Coen (’24) but he fell to mediocrity last season with a new OC and nagging injuries. Baker has his 4th OC in 4 years in Tampa, as Zac Robinson takes over the attack. Robinson certainly didn’t stand out in his 2 years as OC in Atlanta, but I’ll project Mayfield to play at his career level, which would be about 0.8 points per game better than last year’s performance. Losing aging veteran WR Mike Evans certainly won’t be an issue given his lowly 5.9 yards per target last season and having Chris Godwin for a full season will help keep teams from double-teaming Emeka Ebguka as much as they did when Godwin was out last season (he started just 6 games).

RB Bucky Irving was horrible last season (3.4 ypr) after an eye-opening rookie season in 2024 (1122 yards at 5.4 ypr). I expect Irving to bounce back some this season, although he hasn’t performed well running outside zone plays that new OC Zac Robinson likes to feature. The offensive line wasn’t as good with star LT Tristan Wirfs missing 5 games and playing with injuries in others

Defensively the Bucs were a bit below average defensively for the 3rd consecutive season and losing long-time LB Lavonte David to retirement and star CB Jamel Dean to free agency. David has captained the defense for 12 seasons and was still an excellent run defender in his final year before retiring. He’ll be missed in run-support and leadership while losing Dean is even more of a blow. Dean is one of the league’s best cover cornerbacks and last season he allowed just 49% completions on passes targeted at him. His 6.7 yards per target allowed in his 7-year career is also extremely good for an outside cornerback. According to NextGen stats, Dean’s -28.3 target EPA was the best in the league among outside cornerbacks. Replacing that with an average cornerback would be 1.8 points per game based on the 59 targets against Dean last season.

While the Buccaneers’ run defense and coverage will be worse, the pass rush should be better with rookie Rueben Bain jr and Al-Quadin Muhammed (11 sacks for Detroit last season) added to the edge rush group. Tampa Bay was below average in pressure rate and sacks last season but could be a bit better than average in those categories this season.

Cincinnati Preview

Cincinnati combined a horrible defense with an injury-plagued season from star quarterback Joe Burrow, who started just 8 games, which led to a horrible 6-11 record.

The Bengals averaged 26.8 points in Burrow’s 8 starts (against teams that combined to allow an average of 22.2 ppg for the season and scoring conditions that were 0.3 ppg worse than average for each offense. In the last two seasons the Bengals have averaged 27.4 ppg in Burrow’s 25 starts, which equates to 4.7 points per game better than average adjusted for opposing defenses faced and average scoring conditions. All the starters are back on the offensive side of the ball so forecasting the Bengals to be 4.7 points better than average team offensively is reasonable. However, I’m going to factor in some regression and rate the Bengals at 3.3 points better than average offensively to start the season, which is a bit higher than their betting market rating.

The Bengals’ defense was once again horrible, as they ranked 29th in EPA per play allowed and 30th in points per game allowed (28.9 ppg). The good news is that some young players got better as the season progressed and the Bengals were decent defensively in their final 7 games, allowing just 22.6 ppg. They did face Miami, Arizona and Cleveland during that stretch, but they also faced New England, Buffalo and Baltimore twice (with Lamar Jackson at QB in both games). That improvement was without star Trey Hendrickson, which is a good sign given that he is now with the Ravens. Late-season improvement is certainly no indication that things would improve much so management added veteran talent.

To try to fix the defense the Bengals traded for run-stuffing nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, signed edge rusher Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, S Kyle Dugger, and DT Jonathan Allen. Mafe, Cook, and Dugger are nothing special (although they are upgrades) but Lawrence and Allen give the Bengals one of the best interior defensive line tandems in the league. Over the last 5 seasons Lawrence ranks 4th in pressures while getting double-teamed and Allen ranks 5th on that list. You can’t double-team both, so I expect the Bengals to get a lot of pressure up the middle on opposing quarterbacks this season. The rest of the defense is mostly below average, but the Bengals should be much closer to an average defense after last year’s horrible performance.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Cincinnati by 4.7 points with a total of 50.5 points. The Bengals have a history of slow starts with head coach Zac Taylor, as they are just 3-11 straight up the first two weeks of the season in Taylor’s 7 seasons while going 1-8 ATS in those games when favored or getting less than 3 points. The Bengals also apply to a 38-63-4 ATS week 1 angle. I’ll pass this game.