Game Analysis

Lean – Under (43.5) – KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs Denver

Denver Preview

Denver was the #1 seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record and may have made it to the Super Bowl if Bo Nix didn’t get injured before the AFC Championship game. However, the Broncos weren’t nearly as good as their record, and they weren’t any better than the 10-7 team that they had in 2024. In fact, the 2024 Broncos scored more points in the regular season than last year’s offense and both of those teams gave up exactly 311 points (18.3 ppg). The difference was that the 2024 Broncos went 1-5 in one-score games while the 2025 Broncos went 11-2 in such games. Denver’s net EPA per play was the same both seasons but last year was just luckier than the 2024 season. Denver is a good team – just not as good as their record last year suggests.

Offensively the Broncos got a bit better with Bo Nix improving slightly in EPA/ per drop back and success rate. Nix is still just an average quarterback in yards per pass play (6.1 yppp as a rookie and 6.0 yppp last season with 6.0 also being the league average) but he should improve with WR Jaylen Waddle joining the team after averaging 9.3 yards per target in 5 seasons with the Dolphins (9.1 YPT last season). Troy Franklin averaged a poor 6.8 YPT as the Broncos #2 WR last season (on 104 targets) and all wide receivers aside from Courtland Sutton combined for just 7.0 YPT. Franklin and Marvin Mims (just 6.3 YPT) will now be relegated to #3 and #4 receivers, which is more suitable. With two good outside receivers, I expect Nix to improve his yards per pass play to about 6.4 yppp and improve his success rate again.

The rush attack should also improve as long as J.K. Dobbins stays heathy. Dobbins averaged 5.0 ypr on 153 runs in 10 games before getting injured and he’s averaged an impressive 5.2 ypr over 582 career runs. The other Broncos’ running backs combined for just 3.9 ypr for the season and the offense ranked 22^nd in rush play EPA from week 11 on without Dobbins. Having him for an entire season improves the offense by 0.6 points per game.

Denver’s defense led the NFL in EPA per play allowed and was third in points per game allowed (18.3 ppg) in 2024 and they followed that up with a 6^th rated EPA while once again ranking 3^rd in points allowed (18.3 ppg again). That unit wasn’t actually quite that good, as they faced Kansas City in week 17 without Patrick Mahomes and faced the Chargers in week 18 with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Justin Herbert.

Through week 16 the Broncos’ defense was #10 in EPA per play allowed but they were #1 in success rate. That was against a schedule of opponents that was 0.027 EPA per play worse than average offensively (about 1.6 points per game) so the Broncos weren’t as good as their full season metrics indicate. All the key players are back this season (only DE John Franklin-Myers has departed) and Denver enters 2026 as my 6^th best defensive unit.

Kansas City Preview

I don’t understand how Patrick Mahomes is still considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Mahomes put up elite numbers from 2018 through 2022 but in 4 of those 5 seasons he had an elite wide receiver in Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in his prime. In the last 3 seasons, Mahomes has averaged a modest 6.2 yards per pass play, which is not much better than the league average of 6.0 yppp. In his 4 seasons with Hill, Mahomes averaged a combined 7.5 yppp. To further make my point that perhaps it was Hill more than Mahomes that made those offenses so good I want to point out that Hill averaged 9.3 yards per target from 2018 through 2021 playing with Mahomes and he averaged 9.6 YPT in 4 seasons playing in Miami with Tua Tagovailoa.

This Kansas City offense has been nothing special in recent years, although they do eat up clock and run significantly more plays per game than their opponents, which makes them better than their yards per play numbers. In regular season games with Mahomes at quarterback the Chiefs have been #11, #9, and #8 last season in EPA per play and that’s about where they should be this season.

Then again, it may be all Matt Nagy’s fault. Nagy was the offensive coordinator the last 3 years and while those were all without elite WR Tyreek Hill it should be noted that the 2022 season without Hill was an elite offensive season for Kansas City, as they were #1 in points scored, #1 in EPA, #1 in success rate, and #1 in red zone touchdown percentage. The OC for that team was Eric Bieniemy, who is back at that position for the Chiefs this season. Hmmm.

Adding former Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker will help the offense given that last year’s backs combined for just 3.7 yards per run despite decent run blocking (14^th in yards before contact per rush but 28^th in yards after contact). Walker gained 1027 yards at 4.6 ypr in the regular season and won Super Bowl MVP last season. Walker hasn’t been as good over his 4-year career (4.3 ypr) but he’s going to add a big-play element that the Chiefs haven’t had in recent years. Walker has had nearly twice as many 20+ yard runs over the last 4 years than all KC running backs combined. However, Mahomes added 1.7 points per game with his running last season, and I don’t see him running much as he recovers from his ACL/LCL injury.

Kansas City wasn’t nearly as bad as their 6-11 record suggests, as they were 6-8 with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback while going just 1-7 in one-score games with Mahomes. Those are games the Chiefs usually win (they were 12-0 in one-score games the year before) and had they gone just 3-5 in those close games that 6-8 record would have been 8-6.

The Chiefs defense ranked 12^th last season in EPA per play but ranked 6^th in the league in scoring defense at 19.3 points per game allowed. That’s not variance. In 7 seasons with Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator the points per game allowed rank for Kansas City is on average 6 spots better than their EPA ranking, which is exactly the difference last season. This year’s defense doesn’t look nearly as good on paper, as CB Trent McDuffie and LB Leo Chenal have been replaced with unproven young players. Other departures (FS Cook, DT Nnadi, DE Danna, and CB Watson) are replaceable but the losing a pair of star players on the defense should make them a couple of points worse.

Spagnuolo still has stud DT Chris Jones and excellent LB Drue Tranquill, but the rest of the players are mediocre or unproven, and based on overall talent/experience I’d rate the Chiefs’ defense as #17 or #18 best in the league. However, I have them slotted in as the #11 defense based on Spagnuolo’s history of allowing fewer points per game than expected.

Kansas City could be very good again if the Chiefs’ offensive decline over the last 3 years was a function of OC Matt Nagy, which is something I’ll keep my eye on early in the season.

Game Preview

I have Denver higher than the betting market rating heading into the season and, while I have KC on market, the Chiefs could be better than expected if their offensive decline the last 3 seasons was a function of OC Matt Nagy. Kansas City also has a problem on the offensive line as LT Josh Simmons is expected to miss this game and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is slated to take his spot. That’s a significant downgrade.

With the wind now expected to be in the mid-teens my projected total has gone down from when I posted this analysis on Friday. My current rating favor Kansas City by 1 point with a total of 42.5 points. There is now some value on the under and prime-time games tend to go under so I’ll lean Under 43 or more and I’d lean with Denver if this line gets to +3 -115 or better.