Game Analysis

Lean – HOUSTON (+1.5/+1) over Buffalo

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills have had elite offensive numbers in recent years despite having a below average group of receivers, which speaks to how good QB Josh Allen and RB James Cook are. The receiving corps should improve a bit with veteran DJ Moore joining the team, although he had a down year in for the Bears last season. Cook may not be able to match last season’s great numbers (1621 yards at 5.2 ypr) but he probably won’t fall off much. The Bills were about 4 points better offensively than average team last season after adjusting for schedule and average scoring conditions and they should be about the same this year.

Buffalo’s defense wasn’t as good as it appeared to be, as the Bills faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. Adjusting their expected points added (EPA) per play allowed for opposing offenses faced rated that defense about average and the points per game allowed (21.5 ppg is 1.5 ppg better than average) was worse than average when taking into account that their 17 regular season opponents combined to average just 21.3 ppg, their average scoring conditions were -0.6 points per game (0.3 to the defense) and they had 0 non-offensive touchdowns scored against them (2.1 per season per team is average). Adjusting for all of that would make the Bills’ scoring defense 1.4 points per game worse than average last season.

Run stuffing DT Ed Oliver played in just 3 regular season games (he returned for the playoffs), which led to a horrible run defense. The defense against the run should improve but the pass defense, which was better than average last season, will likely not be as good given all the turnover in the secondary depth chart. The Bills’ new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has mediocre defensive talent to work with, and I have that unit rated near the middle of the pack to start the season.

Houston Texans Preview

Houston’s defense was dominating in 2025, which was more than enough to carry the Texans to a 12-5 record despite a mediocre offense. C.J. Stroud did improve significantly from his disastrous 2024 campaign, but he still wasn’t nearly as good as he was as a rookie in 2023. Stroud has a better than average group of receivers to throw to as long as star WR Nico Collins is healthy. Number 2 WR Jayden Higgins tore his ACL in camp and will miss the season and Tank Dell’s return from injuries that kept him out last season has been postponed until at least week 5. However, the Texans traded for Kayshon Boutte, who has averaged an impressive 10.0 yards per target the last two seasons (on 114 targets) with the Patriots.

The offensive line improved in pass blocking last season, but the rush attack was horrible. The Texans upgraded the running back position with former Lion David Montgomery, who fits will in the man-blocking run scheme that the team adopted under OC Nick Caley last season. The offensive line was also upgraded with the signing of right tackle Braden Smith, an 8-year starter in the league, and 1st-round draft pick on interior lineman Keylan Rutledge out of Georgia Tech earned a starting spot.

Last season the Texans’ offense was exactly average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced and the average scoring conditions of their games. They should be at least a little better this season but may need to be significantly better to make up for what is likely to be regression towards the mean for their dominating defense.

The Texans had the best defense in the league last season, but the correlation from one season to the next in regard to level of defense is relatively low (compared to offenses). Houston added FS Reed Blankenship to take over the starting free safety spot in place of Jalen Pitre, and the rest of the defense remains intact. Houston has had an average defensive ranking of 6th best in the league in 3 seasons under current defensive coordinator Matt Burke (based on EPA/play allowed) and they should be one of the league’s best defensive teams again in 2026.

Game Preview

Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans in his career while completing just 52.7% of his passes and averaging a horrible 4.4 yards per pass play. Two of those games were since DeMeco Ryans took over as head coach of the Texans and he’s completed just 51.6% of his passes while averaging 4.2 yppp against Ryans’ stout defense.

My ratings favor Houston by 1.4 points with a total of 47.8 points. I’m certainly not interested in the over based on DeMeco Ryan’s under history (28-9-1 Under totals higher than 41 points) and a 56-23-2 week 1 Under angle that applies to this game. I do lean with Houston.