Game Analysis

0.5 Units – UNDER (40.5) – Cleveland at JACKSONVILLE

Lean – Cleveland (+8.5)

Cleveland Preview

The Browns wasted a good defense in 2025 with the league’s worst offense in terms of yards per play (just 4.3 yppl). This season the defense probably won’t be as good without Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, and I’m not confident that quarterback Deshaun Watson can significantly improve the abysmal quarterbacking that the team experienced last season.

Watson was horrible in his 7 games in 2024 before getting injured, and his 4.8 yards per pass play in 19 total starts in his years with the Browns isn’t much better than the 4.6 yppp that Cleveland’s 3 quarterbacks averaged last season. It’s also been nearly two full years since Watson played a regular season game. However, of the 38 quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks last season the Browns had #37 (Dillon Gabriel) and #38 (Shedeur Sanders) in expected points added per play so Watson is unlikely to be worse than last year’s quarterbacks. In fact, I’ll project Watson to be 2.8 points per game better than last year’s Browns’ quarterbacks.

Cleveland’s offensive line and running backs are also among the worst in the league and I rate the Browns as having the NFL’s worst offense heading into this season.

Losing Garrett hurts, but the Browns should still have a solid defense. Last season that unit ranked 4th in EPA per play and success rate and Jared Verse, who they acquired in exchange for Garrett, was 8th in the NFL last season in pressure rate. The secondary returns intact, as does the rest of last season’s defensive line (other than Garrett). I don’t foresee the defense ranking as highly as they did last season with Garrett, but they could still be a top 10 defense unless new defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg fails at his job (I currently have that unit ranked #12).

Jacksonville Preview

Jacksonville went 13-4 last season despite outgaining their opponents by just 0.2 yards per play (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl). The Jaguars benefited from a +13 turnover margin, led the NFL in points off turnovers and had a good record in close games – all of which are likely to regress. Jacksonville projects as barely better than an average team entering this season.

The Jaguars’ offense scored 27.9 points per game despite being a bit below average in yards per play, 12th in expected points added (EPA) and average in success rate. Trevor Lawrence averaged a modest 6.3 yards per pass play (6.1 yppp is average) for a 3rd consecutive season and only completed 60.9% of his passes but was better in the redzone with a season high 29 touchdown passes in his first season in Liam Coen’s offense. I expect the redzone efficiency to regress this season.

That offense returns basically intact aside from losing mediocre RB Travis Etienne (4.3 ypr) and replacing him with Byahshul Tuten, who averaged just 3.7 ypr but had a 58% success rate (47% success for Etienne), and Chris Rodriquez, who has averaged 4.6 ypr with a 58% success rate on 198 career runs. Travis Hunter averaged 6.4 targets in 7 games before getting injured but he’s reportedly going to focus more on playing defense and he averaged a sub-par 6.6 yards per target as a rookie. Jacksonville rates as just a bit better than average offensively and the Jags are likely to fall well short of the 27.9 points per game that they averaged last season.

The Jaguars had a good year defensively in 2025, ranking 5th in EPA per play allowed. They’re not likely to be that good this season, as the 31 takeaways that unit had are likely to regress towards the mean (they had just 9 takeaways in 2024). A better measure of how good the defense was last season is their success rate allowed, which ranked 9th best in the league, although they rank 12th in the league in success rate after adjusting for opposing offenses faced).

Losing star LB Devin Lloyd is going to hurt but having CB Travis Hunter back healthy (he played just 7 games) will boost the secondary. The Jags should have a solid defense once again but probably won’t be a fortunate in the turnover department.

Jacksonville projects to be better than average defensively (I rate them #12) and a bit better than average offensively, but they won’t have the turnover luck that they enjoyed last season.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Jacksonville by 8.3 points, but the Browns apply to a 76-32-3 ATS week 1 angle and I’ll lean with Cleveland plus the points based on that. I have both offenses rated below their market rating and project just 38.2 total points (even with low winds expected). This game also applies to a 51-29 week 1 Under angle.

Under 40 or more is a 0.5 Unit play.