Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41) – PITTSBURGH (-6.5) vs Atlanta

Atlanta Preview

New head coach Kevin Stefanski would prefer to run the ball, as he did in his first 3 seasons at Cleveland when he had good running backs and competent quarterbacking. The Browns ranked 4^th, 6^th, and 3^rd in run-play percentage from 2020 through 2022 before RB Nick Chubb was injured (in week 2 of the 2023 season). Stefanski has the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson and competent quarterbacks with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix. Both quarterbacks are a bit below average but are clearly better than what Stefanski had to work with in recent seasons with Cleveland). The Falcons already have a good offensive line and offensive line guru Bill Callahan was brought in to enhance that unit.

Unfortunately for the new coach both Penix and Tagovailoa are out for the week 1 game and veteran backup Cooper Rush will get the start. Rush isn’t bad for a backup, but his 5.4 career adjusted net yards per pass play (incorporates sacks, TD passes and interceptions) is significantly worse than Atlanta’s 6.2 ANYPP last season.

Drake London is a solid #1 wide receiver, and Kyle Pitts is a good pass-catching tight end, but the rest of the receivers are replacement level at best and the Falcons need to hope that 3^rd round draft pick Zachariah Branch is an upgrade (I don’t think he is). Stefanski’s offenses were mostly mediocre to bad in Cleveland (10^th in EPA/play in 2020 with Baker Mayfield and then 18^th and 15^th best in 2021 (Mayfield) and 2022 (mostly Jacoby Brissett with Deshaun Watson for 6 games).

The Falcons were 1.9 points worse than average last season based on compensated EPA per play and adjusted for scoring conditions, which were favorable considering that they played their home games in a dome.

This Falcons’ attack could be average if Tua regains his form or Penix improves some from last season, but more likely they’ll be ranked between 20^th and 25^th and a point or two worse than average. Tagovailoa was expected to be the starter to begin the season before he injured his back in practice this week. Tua’s numbers in Miami were mostly good but he had two great receivers to throw to (Hill and Waddle) and Drake London is the only proven wide receiver on the Falcons and TE Pitts averaged a model 7.9 yards per target last season.

Atlanta’s defense was solid last season, ranking in the middle of the pack in EPA per play and success rates, but I expect that unit to be worse this season. In addition to not having starting edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce (team-leading 10.5 sacks) to start the season (Walker tore his ACL and Pearce is suspended for the first 8 games), the two defenders that led the Falcons in pass-rush win rate (Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie) both left in free agency.

Atlanta is going to struggle to find a pass rush, and they don’t have a good enough secondary to overcome that weakness. The run defense was horrible last year and could be just as bad in 2026. The Falcons could be a bottom-5 defense in the first half of the season before likely improving a bit when Pearce returns from suspension.

Pittsburgh Preview

Pittsburgh has been wallowing in mediocrity for years and the management decided to finally move on from long-term head coach Mike Tomlin and hired veteran Mike McCarthy to take his place. McCarthy has a successful history with quarterback Aaron Rodgers but that was when Rodgers was in peak form and not a 42-year old sub-par quarterback. Rodgers was expected to be a game-manager on a team that was supposed to have a strong defense, but that plan didn’t work out as the Steelers allowed 23 points per game (17^th in the league) because they consistently fell apart in the 4^th quarter. Pittsburgh did have a great defense for 3 quarters last season (12.5 ppg allowed) but they gave up an incredibly bad 10.2 points per game in the 4^th quarter, which was the worst in the league.

Pittsburgh’s defense should be better this season, as they still have good talent and added former Bucs’ star CB Jamel Dean, who was the best cover-corner in the league last season. Dean, Joey Porter Jr., and Jalen Ramsey make up one of the best cornerback trios in the league. Pittsburgh gave up way too many big pass plays last season due to poor play at free safety but that should change with the acquisition of Jaquan Brisker. The Steelers were better when Jalen Ramsey played a safety position last season, as the defense allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt with Ramsey at safety and 8.5 ypa when Ramsey was in the slot. That’s not because Ramsey is not a good slot corner (he allowed just 6.2 yards per target in to slot receivers and led all corners with 12 total QB pressures) but rather that opponents took advantage of a bad free safety. Brisker should fix that problem. Strong safety DeShon Elliott will start the season on the IR and will miss at least the first 4 games. Ramsey is listed as the slot corner, but he’ll play safety in the base defense while moving to the slot in the nickel package. Veteran S Rayshawn Jenkins, who isn’t much of a downgrade from Elliott, will play safety in nickel.

The offense was nothing special, but the Steelers were slightly better than average in scoring with 23.4 points per game and better than average in EPA per play relative to the opposing defenses faced and scoring conditions (0.3 ppg tougher than average). The offensive line should be a bit worse with Isaac Seumalo gone and below average players Spencer Anderson and Dylan Cook likely to start on the OL, but the Steelers should still be near the middle of the pack offensively. Pittsburgh is expected to be about 1.5 points per game worse than average offensively this season, but I can see a scenario where they’re around average again.

Game Preview

Cooper Rush is clearly worse than Tua Tagavailoa but the market only moved 2.5 points (from -3.5 to -6) and the total only moved 1 point (from 42 to 41). I get Rush between 2.5 and 4 points worse than Tua depending on what method I use, and I think the market should have at least moved 3 points to -6.5.

With Pittsburgh CB Porter Jr. out I get Pittsburgh by 6.7 points with a total of 40.2 points. Atlanta applies to a 76-32-3 ATS week 1 angle so I have no interest in the Steelers side.