Game Analysis

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs San Francisco

San Francisco Preview

The 49ers managed to go 12-5 and outscore their opponents by 3.9 points per game (against a tougher than average schedule) despite injuries to their star players on both sides of the ball.

On offense, quarterback Brock Purdy played in just 9 games, elite TE George Kittle (9.1 yards per target) missed 7 games, and played hurt in others, and their most productive WR Ricky Pearsall (10.0 YPT) missed 8 games. On defense, the Niners lost 5-time pro-bowler edge rusher Nick Bosa early in the season (played just 3 games) and elite LB Fred Warner (4 x All-Pro) early in week 6. That is 5 of the 49ers’ best players all out for half a season or more.

Pearsall and Kendrick Bourne (10.4 YPT on 53 targets) were the only two better than average wide receivers last season, but Bourne left via free agency and Pearsall did not recover properly from his PCL injury and is out for the season after having surgery. Veterans Mike Evans and Christian Kirk were added to the team, but both are coming off really bad seasons. Evans suffered through an injury plagued 2025 campaign in which he averaged a horrible 5.9 yards per target (not below 8.9 YPT in the 7 seasons prior) and it remains to be seen if Evans can return to form that was close to his level a couple of years ago. Kirk had a disappointing one-year stint in Houston (4.6 YPT), but a resurrection of previous form would be an upgrade over Jauan Jennings, who averaged only 7.1 YPT. However, without Pearsall and Bourne the San Francisco receiving corps is a potential issue if Evans and Kirk don’t return to their old form and quality depth is lacking. Brock Purdy averaged 7.2 yards per pass play last season, which is still very good (6.0 yppp is average) but below his career average of 7.8 yppp. I’ll project him to be a bit lower this season given the uncertainty at the wide receiver position.

Running back Christian McCaffrey is still valuable in the pass game but he averaged just 3.9 yards per rush last season and it’s uncertain if his running form will return to pre-injury levels (he missed most of the 2024 season). I expect at least a slight improvement in the run game with a better season from McCaffrey and without Mac Jones’ horrible rushing numbers when he was starting in place of Purdy.

San Francisco’s offense was 5.4 points per game better than average based on EPA, adjusted for opposing defenses faced (1.4 ppg better than average) and the average scoring conditions in their games and they were 3.7 points better than average in adjusted points per game. The receiving corps looks worse but Purdy at quarterback is better than the Purdy/Mac Jones combination of last season and McCaffrey should have a better season running the ball. The 49ers should fall in the 6th to 10th best offense range this season.

San Francisco’s defense fell apart with early season injuries to their two elite defenders but they were still better than average in points per game allowed (21.8 ppg). Their expected points added metrics weren’t as good (4.3 ppg worse than average adjusted for schedule and average scoring conditions). There is a chance that the Niners could be a top 10 defense with the addition of ILB Dre Greenlaw and with Bosa and Warner playing at their previous high level, but both are coming off injury and it’s more reasonable to assume that the defense will rank closer to the middle of the pack.

Los Angeles Rams Preview

The Rams were undoubtedly the best team in the league last season, but a fluke week 16 loss to the Seahawks gave home field advantage in the playoffs to their division rival and they lost the conference championship game in Seattle 27-31 despite outgaining the Seahawks 479 yards to 396 yards (special teams cost them the game). Los Angeles outscored their opponents by an average of 10.1 points in the regular season and they are a better team on paper heading into 2026.

The offense was the best in the league last season, led by MVP QB Matthew Stafford, All-Pro WR Puka Nacua and a great offensive line that returns intact. The Rams’ defense was a top 10 unit despite mediocre play at the outside cornerback positions. LA addressed that by acquiring both of the Kansas City Chiefs’ two young cornerbacks, two-time Pro-Bowler Trent McDuffie, who has allowed just 6.1 yards per target in his career, and Jaylen Watson. Watson was nothing special last season, but he was good in both ’23 and ’24. The big news, of course, is the trade for Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, who recorded 23 sacks last season for the Browns. Garrett made the Rams’ defensive line the best in the league and now all-time great DT Aaron Donald has officially come out of retirement (although he’ll miss the week 1 game). It’s unlikely that Donald will play at the level he was playing when he retired a few years ago, but I don’t think he’d come back unless he thought he could still be good.

The Rams had the league’s most talented defense before Donald’s return but the best defenses in the league heading into a season rarely get a market rating more than 3 points better than average to start the season and I have the Rams at 2.8 ppg better than average for now.

The Rams are rated as the best team in the league to start the season.

Game Preview

There is an interesting, and potentially significant, difference in the way these teams are treating their travel. The 49ers left for Australia on Wednesday, September 2nd, more than a full week before this game, to help them acclimate to the time zone difference. The Rams, meanwhile, are arriving the night before the game. The 49ers will have their body clocks assimilated to Australian time (10:35 am) when the game begins while the Rams’ approach is to have the players’ body clocks on Pacific time, which would be 5:35 pm PT at kickoff. The consensus is that performance is better for players playing early evening in regard to their body clock than in the mid-morning and it’s hard to argue the Rams’ preparation for international games, as they are 3-0 with a total scoring margin of 92-17 in such games under coach Sean McVay, including a 35-7 whipping of Jacksonville in England last season.

My ratings favor the Rams by 4.6 points and a total of 49.1 points with Bosa and Kittle both expected to play less snaps than usual.