Game Analysis

Lean – Under (47) – Chicago (-3) at CAROLINA

Chicago Preview

The Bears clearly improved last season under new head coach Ben Johnson, who did a great job as the OC for the Lions prior to landing the head gig in Chicago. But all the big plays masked Caleb Williams’ 58.1% completion rate. Williams ranked 36^th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 plays last season in completion percentage vs expected at -3.6%. Williams will likely continue to improve but his 11.9 yards per completion last season is likely to regress some (Ben Johnson’s offenses have averaged 11.6 ypc in 3 seasons at Detroit and last season in Chicago).

Williams’ improvement had a lot to do with a vastly better offensive line, which went from being the worst in the league in 2024 to one of the best last season after wholesale changes were made to upgrade that unit. Center Drew Dalman retired and Garrett Bradbury is a downgrade. Chicago has a good offense but Ben Johnson talking about being the highest scoring offense of all time is delusional.

The Bears’ defense allowed 24.4 points per game, 1.4 points higher than the league average, despite leading the NFL in takeaways (33). They ranked 29^th in yards per play and 27^th in success rate. Takeaways are mostly random from year to year and the Bears’ turnover luck (recovering 10 of 14 fumbles on defense and turning 32% of passes defended into interceptions when 20% is normal) is not likely to repeat. Chicago should be near the middle of the league in takeaways this season, which would spell trouble unless they improve in yards per play and success rate.

Last season, the Bears allowed 6.8 yards per pass play (6.0 yppp is average) and a horrendous 5.0 yards per run (4.4 ypr is average) and gone from that unit are Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Nashon Wright, Tremaine Edmunds and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Edmunds had a solid year at linebacker, but former Cleveland Browns LB Devin Bush is an upgrade and gives the defense more speed, which is what DC Dennis Allen prefers.

Byard also had a good year at safety, including 7 interceptions, but Xavier Woods was signed after off-season acquisition Coby Bryant was injured early in camp, and Woods was better in pass coverage last season (but worse in run defense grade by PFF). That’s about a wash. Brisker could adequately be replaced by rookie SS Dillon Thieneman, who is an upgrade on talent but obviously lacking NFL experience.

Wright was picked on (90 targets) but overall he was decent in pass coverage and C.J. Gardner-Johnson was nothing special as a nickelback, as the Bears were among the worst teams in the league defending slot receivers last year. The hope was that Kyler Gordon would be back from injury in time for the start of the season but that is not the case. When healthy, Gordon has been solid as a slot defender. Cam Lewis was picked up and he’s certainly an upgrade over last year’s slot corners and rookie Malik Muhammed may also find himself playing a lot without Gordon out.

Two-time pro-bowl CB Jaylon Johnson is back after playing in just 7 games last season. Johnson was not good when he was playing (11.6 yards per target and 73% completions allowed) last season (although he wasn’t targeted much), but he could be a significant upgrade if he returns to at least his 2024 level of play. Johnson earned his 2023 Pro-Bowl spot with an elite season (55% completions and 4.8 YPT allowed) but his 2024 Pro-Bowl nod was based on reputation rather than production (66% completions and a mediocre 8.0 YPT allowed).

Overall, the secondary looks decent, and potentially better than average if Johnson returns to form, but the front 7 looks dismal again this season aside from Bush and LB T.J. Edwards.

Chicago grades out as 1.5 to 2.0 points better than average heading into the season but there is a lot of variance in my projection, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Carolina Preview

Carolina was 8-9 last season and won the horrible NFC South division. While the record indicates a mediocre to slightly worse than average team the reality is that the Panthers were about 5 points worse than an average team (-6.0 points per game in net EPA vs a schedule that was 1.1 points better than average in net EPA per game). They were better in compensated points differential (-3.7 points) but they’ve still got a long way to go to get to mediocre and they aren’t likely to be 6-2 in games decided by a field goal or less again.

Quarterback Byrce Young has improved each season, going from dismally bad (4.1 yards per pass play in 2023) to bad (5.4 yppp in ’23) to not quite as bad last season (5.6 yppp). Young does take care of the ball pretty well (2.2% career interception rate) and he’s better than average as a runner. Young should improve again with #1 WR Tetairoa McMillan (8.3 yards per target) in his second season as a pro and with a good #2 receiver in Jalen Coker, who averaged 9.2 YPT and took targets away from Xavier Legette (just 5.7 YPT) late in the season. Coker has a career average of 9.8 YPT on 89 targets, not including his 134 yards on 12 targets against the Rams in their playoff loss. Legette has averaged only 5.8 YPT on 148 targets over his 2-year career but he averaged just 2.8 targets over the Panthers’ final 6 games as Coker got more action. Coker averaged 6.0 targets over those 6 games and that bodes well for further improvement by Young if that trend continues this season.

The offensive line looks solid, but top RB Rico Dowdle left the team and his 1076 yards at 4.6 is not likely to be adequately replaced by Chuba Hubbard, who has averaged just 4.1 ypr in his career. Overall, I see improvement in the offense once they’re healthy but both starting tackles are out until at least week 6, as Taylor Moton is out with a blood clot in his lung and Ikem Ekwonu is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered in the Panthers’ playoff loss in January. Ekwonu is being replaced by former Packers’ starter Rasheed Walker and there isn’t much difference between the two as Walker is a better pass blocker while Ekwonu is a better run blocker. Losing Moton is an issue, as he is coming off a very good season both pass blocking and run blocking and is being replaced by rookie Monroe Freeling.  

The Panthers’ defense allowed just 22.4 points per game (15^th) against a schedule that was about 0.4 points per game easier than average, and they were about 2 points worse than average based on adjusted EPA metrics.

Carolina’s pass defense was worse than average, but the secondary is solid and the pass defense should improve with a better pass rush expected. Last season the Panthers ranked 31^st in pressure rate and 27^th in sack rate but they added Jaelan Phillips, who was 5^th in pressure rate last season. Carolina also signed Devin Lloyd, who is a very good all-around linebacker. The Panthers should be improved defensively as well.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Chicago by 3.4 points with a total of 46.3 points and I’ll Lean Under based on an 82-49-3 week 1 Under angle.