Game Analysis

DETROIT (-7) vs New Orleans

New Orleans Preview

The Saints enter this season with high hopes after last year’s strong finish (won 4 of their final 5 games) behind rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Shough was good for a rookie, but he did face a schedule of mostly sub-par defensive units. Shough should be better this season, and the rushing attack gets an upgrade with Travis Etienne taking over as the main back in place of an aging Alvin Kamara, who averaged just 3.6 ypr in 2025. An injury to first-round draft pick WR Jordyn Tyson leaves Chris Olave as the only proven wide receiver and Shough will need someone other than Olave and TE Juwan Johnson (8.7 yards per target in 2025) to step up if the Saints’ attack is to approach mediocrity this season after being more than 5 points worse than average last season.

The Saints were good defensively in 2025, ranking #6 in yards per play allowed, 10^th in EPA per play, and #7 in success rate. However, Edge rusher Cameron Jordan is entering his 16^th season and is unlikely to produce another 10.5 sacks season (he had below average pressure rate and pas rush win rate but was randomly 2^nd in sacks to pressure percentage) while leading tackler Demario Davis is now playing with the Jets. Also, their 45 sacks as a team (#10 in the league) came while ranking 22^nd in pressure rate and I expect regression towards the mean in that category this year. Jordan will miss the first few games of the season, which certainly will hurt the team’s sack to pressure rate.

New Orleans’ defense played much better than their talent rating last season under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Saints’ talent rating is still worse than average and the question is if Staley can once again get his defense to outperform expectations. Staley’s only other season as a DC was for the 2020 Rams, who had the best defense in the league that season. It’s possible that Staley will once again produce a good defense despite worse than average talent but the market rates that unit a bit worse than average despite last year’s success.

Detroit Preview

The Lions were 9-8 last season after going 15-2 in 2024. A lot went wrong for that to happen. Detroit was the 2^nd most injured team in the league, they were #30 in field goal luck (worth 0.8 points per game), and near the bottom in penalty value.

Losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears hurt the attack, which went from #3 in EPA/play in 2024 to #7 last season, which is remarkable given how poorly the offensive line played. The Lions’ line ranked #31 in pass block win rate and the talent of running back Jahmyr Gibbs masked sub-par run blocking. Gibbs dropped from 5.6 ypr in 2024 to 5.0 ypr and the worst success rate of his career. That’s still good and quarterback Jared Goff had a solid year despite the bad pass protection (sacked 38 times, the most in his career). Detroit tied for 4^th in the league in scoring and the Lions’ offense should once again be among the league’s best even if the offensive line play doesn’t improve.

Detroit’s defense was about average last season with the most starts lost to injury in the league. The injuries have lingered into the start of this season, as the Lions’ elite safety tandem of Joseph and Branch will both miss games early in the season. Starting CB Terrion Arnold was cut after some criminal activity so the secondary is a major weakness heading into the season. The front 7 is solidly better than average with star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and All-Pro LB Jack Campbell as standouts. The Lions will have to put pressure on the quarterback to mask the issues in back end but good quarterbacks with a quick release should be able to take advantage of Detroit’s defense until their safeties return. I’m not sure that Saints’ QB Tyler Shough falls into that category.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Detroit by 8.6 points with a total of 49.1 points even with the Lions’ two starting safeties out. However, big underdogs usually perform well in week 1 and the Saints apply to a 46-14 ATS week 1 big underdog situation.