Game Analysis

Lean – Green Bay (+1.5) over MINNESOTA

Green Bay Preview

Green Bay was just average in scoring offense last season at 23.0 ppg, but the offense was 10^th in yards per play and 4^th in EPA per play and should have scored more points than they did. Quarterback Jordan Love put up good numbers despite his 3 best receivers all missing significant time. Stud TE Tucker Kraft missed the final 10 games, the team’s #1 wide receiver Christian Watson missed 8 games and WR Jayden Reed, who was 2^nd on the team in yards per route run in 2024, also missed most of the season and had just 22 targets (at 9.4 YPT). Those are huge losses. Kraft averaged 11.1 yards on his 44 targets (the other TEs combined for just 6.7 YPT) and Watson averaged 10.4 YPT (including the playoff game) while the other wide receivers combined for 8.3 YPT. There were zero games all season in which those 3 top receiving targets all played, and the Packers had just one game in which Kraft and Watson played the entire game. In that game, Jordan Love had his best game of the season in a 35-25 win at Pittsburgh, totaling 360 yards on 37 pass plays with no interceptions.

The offensive line was also an issue last season, as the starting OL played together on just 18% of the snaps. The Packers’ running backs combined for just 4.0 ypc, their worst average in years, but the OL should be healthier this season.

Despite the injury issues the Packers still managed to rank 4^th in EPA per play on offense, which is indicative of their attack than their mediocre points per game average (they were 8^th in 2024 and 6^th in 2023).

The Packers’ aerial attack should be great assuming Kraft is close to 100% recovered from his ACL tear and Watson and Reed remain healthy. RB Josh Jacobs had a down season last year and is currently on the commissioners’ exempt list due to his legal troubles and there is very little experience behind him. That might not be a negative, as it could lead to less running (negative EPA) and more passing from the offense.

Green Bay was 0-4 after star edge rusher Micah Parsons was injured, and the defense allowed an average of 27.5 points in those games with an EPA per play that equates to 6.9 points per game worse than average – adjusted for opposing offenses faced with adjustments for playing the Ravens with backup Tyler Huntley at QB and facing the Vikings with a combination of McCarthy and Brosmer at QB. Parsons is not worth that many points (his value is 1.3 to 1.9 points depending on methodology) but not having him at the beginning of the season, especially with Rashan Gary traded away, results in the Packers going from a better than average defense to a worse than average defense to start the season.

Minnesota Preview

The Vikings front office made a horrible decision in letting veteran quarterback Sam Darnold get away from them after he led them to a 14-3 record in 2024. The Vikings turned to 2024 #10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy to be the starter and that went horribly wrong. McCarthy (10 starts), Carson Wentz (5 starts) and Max Brosmer (2 starts) combined for just 5.2 yards per pass play with 21 interceptions and just 18 touchdown passes despite having one of the most talented receiving groups in the league, led by Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota’s offense wasn’t great in 2024 with Darnold, but that team had an elite defense. Despite having Justin Jefferson and playing their home games in a dome the Vikings have been very mediocre offensively under offensive minded head coach Kevin O’Connell. Before last year’s disaster the Vikings ranks 15^th in offensive expected points added per play in 2024, 16^th in EPA/play in 2023 and 19^th in EPA/play in 2022 with Kirk Cousins at QB in ’22 and ’23. Those attacks were a bit better in offensive yards per play and scoring (average rankings of 12^th and 13^th, respectively) but certainly fell into the mediocre category.

I don’t think that new quarterback Kyler Murray is as good as either Kirk Cousins (closer to his prime) or Sam Darnold. Murray has been a mediocre passing quarterback in his career (6.1 yards per pass play) and he’s declined in the past 4 seasons (5.8 yppp). That’s not as good as Cousins’ 6.8 career yppp or Darnold’s non-NY Jets average of 6.6 yppp. I expect the Vikings to have a below average offense. Murray has averaged 6 yards on about 90 runs per 17 games, which would add some value to the offense, but I expect the Vikings’ attack to be worse than in ’22 and ’23 but significantly better than it was last season.

The Vikings’ defense was good last season, ranking 7^th in scoring defense despite playing their home games in a domed stadium and facing a tougher than average schedule of opposing offenses, including facing the good offensive units of their division rivals (GB, Chi, Det) twice each. They also faced Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and the Chargers with elite LT Joe Alt, although they also faced Cincy with Browning at QB.

That unit isn’t likely to be as good this year. Gone from last year’s defense are defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, OLB Jonathan Hargrave and veteran S Harrison Smith. The replacements for those players are not expected to be as effective, and the Vikings’ defensive talent rating is slightly below average. However, DC Brian Flores has schemed his defenses (with lots of blitzes) to perform a couple of points per game better than their talent ratings and I expect that to be the case again this season.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Green Bay by 0.7 points and 46.5 total points (with Micah Parsons out) and Matt LaFleur tends to have his team ready to play when the season starts. Under LaFleur the Packers are 15-5-1 ATS the first 3 weeks of the season, including 8-1 ATS against division opponents and 7-0 ATS as a road underdog. I’ll lean with the Packers plus points.