Arizona Cardinals
@ 
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Analysis
LA CHARGERS (-9.5) vs Arizona
Arizona Cardinal Preview
The Cardinals weren’t nearly as bad as their 3-14 record suggests, as they were outgained by just 0.4 yards per play (5.2 yppl to 5.6 yppl) and faced a very tough schedule of opponents (two games each against good division rivals the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks and non-division games against the Colts (with Daniel Jones), Packers, Jaguars and Texans). They also had the most starts lost due to injury of any team in the league. Despite the injuries the Cardinals were only 4.4 points per game worse than average after adjusting for their schedule – and they were a bit better than that using adjusted EPA per play to project scoring margin.
The Cardinals’ offense has moved on from quarterback Kyler Murray, who was having the worst season of his career before getting injured, and Jacoby Brissett probably won’t be much of a downgrade. Brissett has a historically low interception rate of 1.4% and his adjusted net yards per pass play, which takes TD passes, interceptions and sacks into account, was 6.0 last season (just 0.1 below the league average). Murray’s adjusted yppp was just 4.7 in 5 games last season and only 6.0 for his career.
Brisset is a below average, but capable quarterback that was lifted to mediocrity because of a good set of receivers to throw to. Trey McBride has established himself as an elite tight end and Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. form a solid tandem at wide receiver. The addition of #4 overall draft pick RB Jeremiyah Love could also help the pass attack (the RBs combined to average just 5.2 yards per target last season). Love should also boost a rushing attack that was below average due to a horrible offensive line and an injury to top back James Conner, who played just 3 games last season after rushing for over 1000 yards in 2023 and 2024 at a combined 4.8 ypr.
The Cardinals’ defense was expected to be near the middle of the pack last season, but that unit ranked 22nd in yards per play allowed, 28th in EPA per play allowed and #29 in success rate. The new coaching staff retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and his defense should be better. Last season the Cardinals had the 2nd most defensive starts lost due to injury and faced the best slate of opposing offenses in the league while playing 13 of 17 games in a domed stadium, which enhances offenses.
The Cardinals’ defense was 3.5 points worse than average after adjusting for opposing offenses and scoring conditions (including facing the Colts with Daniel Jones, Cincy with Joe Burrow, and the Saints with Rattler (a negative)). That unit should be better with better health but they still project to be a bottom-5 defense based on talent.
I think Arizona is a bit better than their market rating, but they’ll need to stay healthier than they were last season.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Last season’s offense started off well but the season ending injury to left tackle Joe Alt derailed the offense, which was down to their #3 and #4 tackles (RT starter Rashawn Slater was lost for the season to injury prior to the season starting). Alt played just 4 games in which he played the large majority of snaps and the Chargers averaged 26.8 points in those games (against 4 teams whose EPA/play allowed last season equated to 3.0 points per game better than average). LAC averaged 22.5 points in two games in which Alt started but played a combined total of just 37 snaps and the Chargers averaged only 19.6 ppg in the 11 games Alt didn’t play at all.
With Alt on the field the Chargers EPA per play would have ranked 5th in the NFL (#1 in passing EPA/play) and their EPA per play would have ranked 26th in the NFL based on the snaps without Alt. The Chargers ended up being last in the league in pass-blocking win rate and #31 of 32 teams in run-blocking win rate while Herbert led all quarterbacks in hits taken.
Alt and Slater are back healthy but newly acquired center Tyler Biadasz is out for the season after tearing his ACL in mid-August. Rookie Jake Slaughter, a 2nd round pick, will play center, which is the position he played in college, and it looks like replacement level player Kayode Awosika will move into the left guard position vacated by Slaughter’s move to center. Despite the injury to Biadasz the offensive line play will be significantly better with two excellent tackles protecting Herbert. Former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel brings his strong offensive credentials to the team as the offensive coordinator I expect the Chargers to be a few points better than average offensively this season.
The Chargers’ defense has been very good the last two seasons under former defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who has moved on to the head coaching job in Baltimore. Minter’s defenses allowed just 17.7 points per game in 2024 and only 20.0 ppg last season. The talent level is a bit worse, as losing edge rusher Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks in just 12 games) and led the team in pass-rush win rate. LAC still has Tuli Tuipulotu (13 sacks last season) and Khalil Mack (5.5 sacks) on the edge but losing Oweh will likely hurt the team’s pass rush metrics.
New DC Chris O’Leary was with the staff in 2024 and did a great job as the DC at Western Michigan last season (17.4 ppg allowed) and should do a good job – although it remains to be seen if he can keep the Chargers in the top-10 in defense (I’ll call for them to be closer to the middle of the pack to start the season).
Game Preview
My ratings favor the Chargers by 11.1 points with a total of 47.2 points. I see some value on the Chargers but week 1 underdogs of more than 6 points with totals of 44 points or higher are 34-15-1 ATS since 2004.