Game Analysis

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5) over Baltimore

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The betting market is pricing the Colts about 1 to 1.5 points below average, which I think is too low. They were a few points better than an average team last season, even with starting quarterback Daniel Jones missing nearly 5 games. Jones averaged 7.2 yards per pass play while ranking 6th in the NFL in expected points added per play and success rate.

There is still some skepticism about Jones given that he’d never been better than average in yards per pass play prior to last season in 6 years with the Giants. The talent and system are certainly better than Jones had in New York and having big play WR Alec Pierce to throw to can help a quarterback pad his stats. Pierce has led the NFL in yards per reception two years in a row (22.3 ypc in 2024 and 21.3 ypc in ’25) and he averaged 11.9 yards per target in each season. The other two wide receivers, Pittman and Downs, combined for just 6.8 yards per target last season, which is below average. So, perhaps Jones got a little better than his years in New York and the rest of the significant improvement can be attributed to having Pierce to throw to.

The concern is that Jones might regress from last year’s good numbers towards his career metrics, which are not nearly as good. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was last season, but he should be a better than average quarterback with Pierce to throw to. The receiving corps lost Michael Pittman Jr. (just 7.1 yards per target but led the receivers in success rate) but veteran Keenan Allen has joined the team and will adequately fill the void.

The Colts were about 4.4 points better than average offensively last season, even with Jones missing nearly 5 games (the other two QBs combined for just 5.5 yards per pass play on 166 pass plays). Indy averaged 29.8 points in the 12 games with Jones at quarterback, excluding the game he got injured in (threw just 7 passes), which is close to 7 points better than average. I don’t think it’s a stretch to project the Colts to be a very good offense again if Jones is 100% (he reportedly looks great in camp) given that they also have a one of the league’s best running backs in Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 1585 yards at 4.9 yards per carry with 18 TD runs.

The Colts’ defense was below average last season but could be better with a full year of CB Sauce Gardner (who appeared in just 4 games after being acquired via trade) and Charvarius Ward (who played just 7 games). Those two help make the secondary a top-10 unit based on talent but the front 7 has bottom-10 talent. The Indianapolis defense projects to be in the middle of the pack.

The Colts should have a better than average offense and a mediocre defense, so I don’t agree with the negative market rating on them heading into the season.

Baltimore Ravens Preview

The Ravens were considered to be one the Super Bowl frontrunners heading into last season but they underperformed on both sides of the ball and missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record. The offensive dropoff was a function of Lamar Jackson not being healthy for most of the season, as he was playing at his normal MVP level before getting injured. Lamar was on the injury report in 12 of the team’s final 13 games.

The biggest impact of Jackson’ injuries was his running, as he averaged just 27 rush yards per game at 5.2 ypr, which is well below his 56 yards per game at 6.0 ypr career averages. Jackson’s passing numbers were still good at 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but his limited mobility led to a 10.7% sack rate, which is much higher than his 7.3% career sack rate. Jackson is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the all-time lead in passer rating so criticism of his passing by some is clearly unwarranted and the Ravens’ aerial attack should once again be among the best in the league if Jackson can average 8.4 ypa again while lowering his sack rate to his career norm. That’s not a stretch given that he’s averaged 8.43 ypa on 1233 pass attempts the last 3 years. Before his hamstring injury Jackson was leading the league in yards per attempt (9.1 ypa) and was #3 in expected points added per dropback and I see no reason why he won’t return to his normal MVP caliber level.

The Ravens have averaged 28.2 points per game in Lamar Jackson’s 100 regular season starts since his first season as the full-time starter (2019). If Jackson stays healthy this season they could approach that number, although I’m expecting Derrick Henry to start to decline as he’s at the age where running backs tend to fall off a cliff. Henry averaged 5.2 ypr last season (and 5.9 ypr in 2024 – his first season with the Ravens), but a drop to around 4.5 ypr should be expected, which would shave about a point per game from the Ravens’ offense.

While Jackson’s injuries were a legitimate reason for the offense underperforming last season, it was the defense that let the team down. The Ravens had a top-10 defense in 2024 and were expected to be even better last season. That was not the case. Baltimore was 18th in scoring defense, 18th in EPA allowed and 16th in success rate last season despite having good talent. That team lost star DT Nnamdi Madubuike to a neck injury in week 2 and his return, along with the signing of edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024 with Cincy before an injury plagued down season last year), gives the Ravens one of the most talented defensive units in the league heading into this season.

While new DC Anthony Weaver’s team in Miami performed a bit better than projected in his two seasons, it will be new head coach Jesse Minter that will be calling the defensive plays. Minter did a great job as DC a Michigan before following Jim Harbaugh to LA to take over the Chargers’ defense. Minter’s defenses were the 6th best in the league over his two seasons (based on EPA and success rates) and allowed just 18.9 points per game (4 ppg better than an average team). It would not surprise me if the Ravens’ defense was that good given the talent on hand, but I’ll rate that unit at 2.4 points better than average heading into the season.

Game Projection

I would make this line Baltimore by 2.5 points with a total of 49 points, and I’ll lean with the Colts at +3.5 (even or better).