Game Analysis

1 Unit – UNDER (39.5) – NY Jets at TENNESSEE (-1.5)

NY Jets Preview

The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season, getting outscored by 11.9 points per game against a schedule that was about half a point easier than average. New York’s offense was one of the 4 horrible units in the league (along with Tennessee, Las Vegas, and Cleveland) and the defense, while not horrible in yards per play allowed (5.6 yppl, 22nd), had just 4 takeaways all season, the lowest total ever for a defense.

The Jets had a turnover margin of -19, which equates to about 4.2 points per game, but they still would have been battling the Titans and Raiders as the league’s worst team even with a neutral turnover margin. New York is likely to be much better in turnover luck this season, but the defense still lacks talent with the departures of their two most well-regarded players from last season’s opening day roster (CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams). Acquiring S Minkah Fitzpatrick and LB Demario Davis softens the blow of those losses a bit, especially considering that Gardner and Williams played just 15 combined games before being traded.

The Jets should be solid defending the run after acquiring run-stoppers T’Vondre Sweat and David Onyemata, but the pass defense is likely to be an issue – particularly if #2 overall draft pick David Bailey doesn’t significantly improve a pass rush that produced just 26 total sacks (31st). Fitzpatrick at safety should help cut down on the big plays allowed but the cornerback situation looks dire.

New York’s offense should be better this season assuming that star WR Garrett Wilson plays more than the 7 games that he played last year. Wilson wasn’t great in 2025 due to bad quarterback play (just 6.7 yards per target) but he was much better than the rest of the wide receivers (just 5.6 YPT) and the Jets also could get an upgrade in the aerial attack from rookies Omar Cooper and TE Kenyon Sadiq.

New York’s new quarterback, veteran Geno Smith, should be an upgrade over Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook. Smith had his worst season last year with the Raiders behind a horrible offensive line and averaged just 5.2 yards per pass play with 17 interceptions (his career average is 6.0 yppp). As bad as that was, it’s still an improvement over the 4.3 yppp that the Jets’ quarterbacks combined for in 2025.

New offensive coordinator Frank Reich has plenty of experience and a Super Bowl ring as the OC for the 2017 Eagles, and his teams have averaged 23.6 points in 149 regular season games with him as the OC/play-caller (called plays in his years as a head coach) – although his last two teams (the ’22 Colts and ’23 Panthers) combined to average just 16.3 points per game (in 20 total games).

Tennessee Preview

Tennessee was outscored by 11.4 points per game last season, but the Titans played the toughest schedule in the league and were about 8 points worse than an average team after adjusting for level of opponents faced. They should be better this season.

Rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the #1 overall draft pick, averaged just 4.6 yards per pass play but he kept his interceptions low (just 7 picks on 540 attempts) and should significantly improve his numbers this season. Second year quarterbacks that started as rookies and struggled tend to play much better, which is particularly the case for quarterbacks selected first overall. Ward faced the toughest combined opposing pass defenses of any quarterback in the league last season and has added talent at receiver with #4 overall pick Carnell Tate from Ohio State (although he had zero catches in the preseason) and Wan’Dale Robinson, who was nothing special with the Giants last season (7.2 yards per target) but is an upgrade over the wide receivers the Titans had last season.

Unfortunately for Ward the offensive line is still expected to be horrible (he was sacked 55 times last season) but overall, the Titans’ attack should be at least a few points better than it was last season based on Ward’s projected improvement. The OL didn’t keep Tony Pollard from averaging 4.5 ypr last season (4.6 ypr for his career – mostly with Dallas) and I expect the run game to be decent again.

I normally don’t put too much weight into preseason performances but my algorithm for second year starting quarterbacks that were drafted #1 overall expects a significant improvement from Ward and I saw no signs of that in the preseason, as he completed just 54% of his 24 passes for an average of 5.3 yards per attempt.  I’m still expecting significant improvement, but I lowered the Titans’ offense rating by 0.4 points from what it was before the preseason started.

The Titans’ defense will be under the leadership of veteran DC Gus Bradley, who worked with head coach Robert Saleh in San Francisco last season. Bradley built his reputation with the Super Bowl winning Legion of Doom defenses in Seattle but the last 5 defensive units that he ran have all ranked 23rd or worse in points per game allowed (2020 Chargers, 2021 Raiders, and 2022 to 2024 Colts).

Bradley has below average talent to work with, but they should be better than last season, when they ranked 5th worst in the league in points allowed per game, 6th worst in expected points added (against an easier than average schedule of offenses, adjusted for facing KC without Mahomes). Tennessee wasn’t quite as bad in success rate allowed (19th of 32 teams) and could be better than expected if the new coaching staff can improve on the big play rate (26th last year in explosive plays allowed).

The biggest improvement should be in pass defense, as bringing in cornerbacks Cor’Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor is a huge upgrade from Amour-Davis, Sneed. McCreary and Baker, who combined to allow 9.8 yards per target on 158 targets last season. Flott has allowed just 7.4 YPT in his career (6.9 YPT last season), Taylor has allowed just 6.7 YPT in his career (6.5 YPT last season) and Harris, slotted to play nickelback, was the one decent CB on last year’s Titans (just 7.6 YPT allowed). The safeties will likely still give up too many big plays, as FS Kevin Winston allowed 350 yards on 24 targets last season while Hooker allowed 698 yards on 61 targets (although a reasonable 8.7 YPT in his career).

The defensive front is anchored by Jeffery Simmons, who is one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. The rest of the front-7 is below average but new edge rushers Jermaine Johnson and Jacob Martin are an upgrade.

Of course, even bad defenses that are still expected to be bad relative to the rest of the league still tend to regress towards average and I only rate the Titans’ defense at 1.3 points worse than average heading into the season. Linebacker Cedric Gray is in concussion protocol as of Wednesday morning and could miss this game. I project Gray’s value at 0.4 points.

Game Prediction

My ratings favor Tennessee by 1.1 points with a total of 37.6 points (with Titans’ LB Cedric Gray out), even with the low winds projected, and this game applies to a 105-47-4 Week 1 Under situation.

The Under is a 1 Unit play at 39 or more and 0.5 Units Under down to 38.