Game Analysis

Lean – Under (48) – Dallas (-2.5/-3) vs NY GIANTS

Dallas Preview

Dallas should be much better this season with a potent offense that returns all 11 starters and a defense that is expected to be much better after giving up more points than any team in the league last season. Trading away star edge rusher Micah Parsons before last season allowed the Cowboys to get a handful of new players to solidify the defense. Dallas got better than average DT Kenny Clark and some draft picks in the trade with the Packers and the extra draft picks not only allowed them to trade for stud DT Quinnen Williams in the middle of last season but they were able to still draft DB Caleb Downs with the 11th pick after he inexplicably dropped down the board. The Cowboys also signed edge rusher Rashan Gary, CB Cobie Durant, and S Jalen Thompson, and traded for Dee Winters. Those are all upgrades and the coaching staff is hoping the S Malik Hooker bounces back from a miserable performance last season in which he gave up 11.8 yards per target after yielding just 7.6 YPT in 4 previous seasons with the Cowboys.

New defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a Vic Fangio disciple, which will likely lead to more blitzing. That would probably be the case regardless given the Cowboys’ lack of proven edge rushers aside from Gary. Dallas had one of the worst defenses in the last 20 years but the worst 10 defenses during that span were just 1.2 points per game worse than average the very next season, so it’s not a stretch to think the Cowboys will be decent on defense. In fact, their talent rating is slightly better than average.

The offense averaged 27.4 points per game in regulation (6th best) and all 11 starters return to run it back – although Pro-Bowl LG Tyler Smith will miss at least the first four games of the season. Dallas’ compensated points per game, adjusted for opponents, scoring conditions and the fact that they had just 1 non-offensive TD (2.2 is average) was +4.3 points better than average. Normally better than average units regress towards the mean a bit, but nobody had a season that much out of the norm.

Dak Prescott averaged 6.9 yards per pass play, which was just slightly better than his 6.8 yppp career average, and it’s surprising it wasn’t even higher with the addition of WR George Pickens. Pickens and CeeDee Lamb give the Cowboys two legitimate #1 receivers and are clearly the best duo in the league. Pickens’ 10.4 yards per target was a bit higher than his 9.9 YPT career number but that would be expected with him facing fewer double-teams given that defenses also had Lamb to deal with. The same was true for Lamb, who averaged 9.2 YPT, which was a bit better than his 8.9 YPT career mark. But neither receiver was significantly higher than normal given the circumstances.

The injury to LG Tyler Smith is a concern, but backup TJ Bass has had 10 starts for the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons (5 last season) and he’s been solid. Bass is a good pass-blocker and his pressures and sacks allowed per pass blocking snap isn’t significantly worse than that of Smith. However, Smith is an elite run-blocker, and I’d expect the Cowboy’s EPA per run to drop by 0.01 to 0.02, which equates to about 0.4 points per game. I’ll start Dallas off with a +2.4 offensive rating, but I suspect they’ll end up being better than that as long as the other key components are healthy.

Dallas is a better than average team heading into this season and with the second-best rating in their division behind only the Eagles.

New York Giants Preview

There’s some excitement brewing regarding the Giants, who have a new established head coach in John Harbaugh and young offensive skill players in QB Jaxson Dart and WR Malik Nabers. Dart should improve, as most second-year starting quarterbacks do, but Nabers has yet to put up good numbers, as he’s averaged just 7.2 yards per target in 19 games and 127 targets. Bad quarterbacking in 2024 has been used as an excuse for his 7.1 YPT that season, which could be the case (he was better than fellow WR Wan’Dale Robinson that year but worse than Darius Slayton). However, last season in 4 games (two of which were against horrible defensive teams Dallas and Washington) Nabers averaged 7.7 YPT while Robinson and Slayton combined for 7.6 YPT for the season. Nabers does have good separation/getting open scores, and I’ll assume he’ll be a further boost to the aerial attack.

The running backs were worse than average last season, as Tyrone Tracy averaged 4.2 ypr, Cam Skattebo averaged 4.1 ypr, and Devin Singletary averaged just 3.7 ypr. There should be some improvement with Singletary not expected to get much action after running the ball 119 times last season due to the injury to Skattebo that kept him out of 9 games. I have some concern about offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who may be partially responsible for the Chiefs going from the league’s best offense in 2022 to an offense that ranked 9th in the league over 3 years combined (only counting games with Patrick Mahomes at QB) with him as the OC.

The Giants drafted Arvell Reese with the #5 overall pick, and he should be a solid pro right away. Reese should be very good against the run from an inside linebacker position but there are legitimate questions about his pass coverage ability, although I suppose they’ll use him a lot on blitzes to take advantage of his athletic ability.

Losing three-time Pro Bowl DT Dexter Lawrence is a blow to the defense. The pass-rush was better than average last season with Brian Burns recording 16.5 sacks by himself. Last year’s #3 overall draft pick Abdul Carter was a disappointment with just 4 sacks, but he had a better pressure rate and better pass-rush win rate than Burns. Both Burns and Carter benefited from Lawrence drawing a league-high 75% double-team rate last season and are likely to be less productive as a tandem in 2026. New York also got a bit worse in the secondary with Greg Newsome II joining the team to take the place of departed CB Cordale Flott, who allowed just 6.9 yards per target last season. Newsome isn’t bad, as he’s given up 7.7 YPT in each of the last two seasons, but he grades out a bit worse than Flott. LB Tremaine Edwards was brought in to replace Bobby Okereke, which seems like a wash.

The Giants ranked in the mid-20s among NFL defenses in most metrics last season and could be worse without Lawrence causing havoc in the middle of the defensive line, which benefited everyone around him. However, the young players should improve, which could balance out the departure of their best defender, and the run defense has to get better (they allowed 5.5 yards per run to running backs, which was by far the worst in the league).

Game Preview

My ratings favor Dallas by 2.6 points, with a total of 48.1 points, after accounting for G Tyler Smith being out. I’ll lean Under based on an 82-49-3 week 1 Under angle.