Game Analysis

Lean – Under (44.5) – SEATTLE (-3.5/-3) vs New England

New England Preview

The Patriots went 17-4 last season, including their 4 postseason games, but they weren’t as good as they appeared to be. New England played by far the easiest schedule in the league and their +10.0 regular season scoring margin was 3rd best in the league. However, their adjusted scoring margin was 6th best and they’re projected to be the 13th best team in the league based on the betting market ratings. I think they’ll be better than that.

The offense flourished with the vast improvement of second year quarterback Drake Maye, who was 2nd in the MVP voting after completing 72% of his passes and averaging 7.8 yards per pass play with just 8 interceptions thrown. Normally, regression towards the mean would be expected after such a standout performance and the release of top receiver Stefon Diggs, who averaged 9.9 yards on his 102 targets (caught 85 of those targets), but the Patriots added star WR A.J. Brown to take his spot. Brown averaged a career-low 8.3 yards per target in a dysfunctional season in Philadelphia, but he has a 9.8 career YPT average, which is significantly better than Diggs’ 8.6 YPT career average. Diggs’ 9.9 YPT last season has more to do with Maye, as all the Patriots’ wide receivers combined for 10.1 YPT in 2025. Brown is an upgrade and the addition of free agent Romeo Doubs also helps.

It will still be a challenge for Maye to improve upon last season’s raw metrics given the much tougher schedule he’ll face and a likely regression to the mean in the percentage of big plays, which led the league last season. Overall, the Patriots ranked 2nd in EPA per play on offense in the regular season but ranked 8th in success rate, which is more indicative of future performance. When including the playoff games and adjusting for opposing defenses the Patriots’ offense was 4.3 points better than average based on EPA but was just 3.0 points better than average based on more predictive metrics.

New England’s defense metrics were barely better than average in the regular season after adjusting for the easy slate of opposing offenses that they faced but that unit played extremely well in their four postseason games and overall, the Pats’ defense was about 3 points better than average in 20 games (I excluded the Denver game in bad weather against a backup QB). New safety Kevin Byard is considered a significant upgrade over Jaylinn Hawkins and new OLB Dre’Mont Jones may also be a slight upgrade over K’Lavon Chaisson. The Patriots should have a top 10 defense despite facing better opposition this season.

Edge Harold Landry is out to start the season and I value him worth 0.4 points over replacement Elijah Ponder, who showed some promise as a rookie last season with 4 sacks but isn’t as proven as Landry, who has averaged 9.3 sacks the last 3 seasons after missing the 2022 season (had 12 sacks in 2021 before the ACL injury).

Seattle Preview

The Super Bowl champs return nearly intact this season, with the notable exception of RB Kenneth Walker, who cashed in his Super Bowl MVP award into free agent dollars. Zach Charbonnet doesn’t have the explosiveness that Walker had but I think rookie 1st round pick RB Jadarian Price is going to be a good player and starts the season as the featured back with Charbonnet still recovering from an ACL injury.

Quarterback Sam Darnold averaged a very good 7.7 yards per pass play in the regular season and his career resurrection probably has more to do with being able to throw the ball to Justin Jefferson in Minnesota and to Jaxson Smith-Njigba with the Seahawks. Smith-Njigba averaged an incredible 11.0 yards on the 163 regular-season balls targeted at him. The other 3 wide receivers combined for a mediocre 8.0 yards per target, but Darnold’s numbers should continue to be good as long as he’s got the NFL Offensive Player of the Year on the field. It wasn’t all good for Darnold, as his 20 turnovers led the league – although I expect that number to drop a bit this season (he had 16 turnovers in 2024 with Minnesota), which should boost Seattle’s mediocre EPA per play. The Seahawks were just 13th in EPA per play despite being 7th in success rate.

The Seahawks’ defense became dominant from week 6 on after cornerback Devon Witherspoon joined the lineup after missing the first 5 games while finishing the rehab for his MCL injury. Free safety Coby Bryant is now with Chicago, but Ty Okada and Julian Love combined for 19 starts last season. Love was outstanding last season and having him for a full season (he missed 9 games) is more of a plus than losing Bryant is a negative.

Despite the talent being basically the same, it is unlikely that the Seahawks’ defense will be as good as they were last season. Defenses tend to regress towards the mean from season to season much more than offenses do. Seattle is clearly one of the top defenses in the league but is considered to be only a few points better than average by the betting markets heading into the season.

Game Preview

In this Super Bowl rematch my ratings favor the Seahawks by 4.0 points with a total of 43.7 points. This game applies to a 51-29 week 1 Under angle. I’ll lean Under 44 points or more.