Game Analysis
Lean – NY GIANTS (+3.5) over Philadelphia
The Giants fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and former Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens will now be calling the plays for Daniel Jones. New York could catch a huge break if CB Darius Slay is unavailable due to a concussion after Slay conceded only 9 yards while breaking up a pass and taking an interception for a touchdown last week. Slay is allowing just 0.72 yards per cover snap and is worth 0.9 points by our numbers. Giants LG Matt Skura is surrendering a 6.4% pressure rate and has no chance of staying in front of interior defender Javon Hargrave, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.
Jalen Hurts is also likely to face some collapsing pockets as DT Leonard Williams has 33 pressures (7th) and will line up across from Philadelphia LG Landon Dickerson, who ranks 44th in pass blocking efficiency out of 55 qualifying guards. Rookie WR DeVonta Smith has 8 deep receptions (5th) but he will be contained by cornerback James Bradberry, who has 9 forced incompletions (2nd). The Eagles target tight ends on 27.4% of passes (4th) and Hurts will be looking for Dallas Goedert as New York’s defense could be without both starting safeties for the second-straight week. Rob Gronkowski averaged 2.54 yards per route run last Monday night with Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan not on the field.
Our model makes Philadelphia a 3.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.0 points, but the matchup favors the Giants, as does a 34-2-1 ATS contrary angle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.09
36.36
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
52.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.0%
14.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.0%
29.2%
-
NYPP
6.42
6.37
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.82
28.36
-
RB YPR
4.53
4.14
-
Stuff Rate
19.5%
21.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
57.5%
50.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.9%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.97
4.11
Game
-
All Snaps
61.91
64.73
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
54.6%
-
Succ Rate
50.4%
51.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.9%
31.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.70
5.38
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.85
28.90
-
Run Ratio
49.8%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
0.45
-0.45
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.20
40.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.8%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.9%
31.4%
-
NYPP
6.01
6.27
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.30
27.30
-
RB YPR
3.50
4.38
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
17.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
52.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.1%
35.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.99
4.38
Game
-
All Snaps
61.50
68.10
-
Early Down Succ
47.4%
53.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
50.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.4%
32.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.25
5.51
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.34
28.07
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-3.15
3.15
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
32 – 6 W |
7.50 |
55.6% /
39.5% |
2.8% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.25 /
3.58 |
58.1% /
42.3% |
12.9% /
26.9% |
5.58 /
4.77 |
67 /
64 |
61.5% /
47.8% |
56.7% /
40.6% |
35.5% /
24.3% |
6.48 /
4.06 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
40.6% |
35.00 /
20.00 |
| 2 |
SF |
11 – 17 L |
-2.03 |
38.5% /
56.7% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.81 /
6.30 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
26.3% |
5.21 /
3.08 |
55 /
68 |
53.7% /
50.9% |
49.1% /
50.0% |
52.5% /
23.2% |
5.96 /
4.50 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.7% /
55.9% |
19.44 /
18.67 |
| 3 |
@DAL |
21 – 41 L |
-11.98 |
36.6% /
60.0% |
4.9% /
13.3% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
7.39 /
7.33 |
33.3% /
56.1% |
16.7% /
22.0% |
5.33 /
3.90 |
53 /
71 |
39.5% /
63.0% |
35.8% /
57.7% |
46.7% /
25.1% |
6.92 /
5.35 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
22.6% /
57.7% |
21.33 /
30.69 |
| 4 |
KC |
30 – 42 L |
-4.73 |
52.9% /
77.4% |
5.9% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.02 /
8.74 |
68.4% /
71.9% |
10.5% /
6.3% |
5.42 /
6.25 |
70 /
63 |
61.1% /
73.1% |
57.1% /
74.6% |
32.4% /
47.7% |
6.59 /
7.48 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
50.8% |
27.75 /
25.63 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
21 – 18 W |
-5.34 |
33.3% /
42.5% |
5.1% /
7.5% |
2.7% /
8.1% |
4.67 /
3.95 |
59.1% /
36.7% |
22.7% /
20.0% |
4.14 /
3.63 |
61 /
70 |
45.7% /
41.8% |
42.6% /
40.0% |
40.5% /
30.1% |
4.48 /
3.81 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
42.9% |
34.67 /
32.57 |
| 6 |
TB |
22 – 28 L |
-9.08 |
32.1% /
54.8% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
2.4% |
4.04 /
7.07 |
52.6% /
51.6% |
31.6% /
29.0% |
5.26 /
3.29 |
47 /
73 |
44.1% /
54.2% |
40.4% /
53.4% |
60.9% /
23.1% |
4.53 /
5.47 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
42.5% |
24.60 /
28.55 |
| 7 |
@LV |
22 – 33 L |
-7.22 |
44.4% /
76.5% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.19 /
9.50 |
62.5% /
55.2% |
12.5% /
20.7% |
4.22 /
4.10 |
68 /
63 |
53.8% /
71.7% |
52.9% /
66.7% |
41.2% /
36.2% |
5.26 /
7.02 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
46.0% |
23.50 /
39.00 |
| 8 |
@DET |
44 – 6 W |
18.08 |
43.8% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
15.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.13 /
4.28 |
63.0% /
44.4% |
17.4% /
27.8% |
5.13 /
3.17 |
62 /
58 |
59.6% /
47.2% |
58.1% /
41.4% |
36.3% /
12.2% |
5.65 /
3.93 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
74.2% /
31.0% |
33.11 /
29.80 |
| 9 |
LAC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.17 |
50.0% /
57.9% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.61 /
9.37 |
59.0% /
40.7% |
12.8% /
25.9% |
4.51 /
3.30 |
57 /
65 |
53.3% /
51.0% |
56.1% /
50.8% |
47.3% /
30.3% |
5.81 /
6.85 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.4% /
41.5% |
20.14 /
29.38 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
30 – 13 W |
7.87 |
54.2% /
35.1% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.17 /
5.73 |
52.5% /
61.1% |
32.5% /
16.7% |
5.35 /
5.33 |
64 /
55 |
54.9% /
51.2% |
53.1% /
43.6% |
54.3% /
42.2% |
6.03 /
5.60 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
62.5% /
32.7% |
22.20 /
28.82 |
| 11 |
NO |
40 – 29 W |
13.03 |
33.3% /
42.5% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
5.11 /
5.35 |
54.0% /
50.0% |
18.0% /
18.2% |
4.84 /
4.95 |
77 /
62 |
43.6% /
44.9% |
46.8% /
45.2% |
46.3% /
45.8% |
4.94 /
5.21 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
64.9% /
35.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DEN |
13 – 27 L |
-4.88 |
48.7% /
52.6% |
5.1% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.51 /
6.71 |
45.0% /
39.3% |
20.0% /
21.4% |
3.00 /
5.89 |
59 /
66 |
47.7% /
45.7% |
47.5% /
47.0% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
5.32 /
6.36 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
33.9% /
42.4% |
25.89 /
23.25 |
| 2 |
@WAS |
29 – 30 L |
2.22 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.33 /
6.81 |
46.4% /
63.6% |
28.6% /
18.2% |
5.82 /
3.95 |
64 /
69 |
50.0% /
61.1% |
45.3% /
56.5% |
45.6% /
32.4% |
6.11 /
5.90 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
31.9% |
30.09 /
20.91 |
| 3 |
ATL |
14 – 17 L |
2.05 |
51.4% /
41.0% |
5.4% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.65 /
5.82 |
55.6% /
30.0% |
29.6% /
15.0% |
3.70 /
3.45 |
64 /
59 |
56.3% /
38.6% |
53.1% /
37.3% |
20.8% /
42.0% |
5.41 /
5.02 |
1.6% /
1.7% |
42.2% /
33.9% |
22.40 /
29.40 |
| 4 |
@NO |
27 – 21 W |
-1.41 |
57.5% /
57.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
3.8% |
10.05 /
9.04 |
35.0% /
61.5% |
15.0% /
2.6% |
4.15 /
4.36 |
60 /
65 |
53.1% /
60.8% |
50.0% /
60.0% |
54.0% /
22.0% |
8.08 /
6.23 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
60.0% |
24.09 /
26.50 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
20 – 44 L |
-8.12 |
48.7% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
5.1% /
3.0% |
7.54 /
8.97 |
32.0% /
48.7% |
28.0% /
15.4% |
2.92 /
5.15 |
64 /
74 |
43.8% /
48.2% |
42.2% /
48.6% |
38.4% /
52.6% |
5.73 /
6.96 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
39.1% /
52.7% |
23.42 /
32.70 |
| 6 |
LA |
11 – 38 L |
-15.52 |
36.4% /
62.5% |
7.3% /
6.3% |
5.9% /
6.7% |
3.65 /
7.31 |
38.9% /
52.9% |
27.8% /
20.6% |
3.33 /
3.85 |
73 /
66 |
41.2% /
64.2% |
37.0% /
57.6% |
4.6% /
34.8% |
3.58 /
5.53 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
51.5% |
22.83 /
40.23 |
| 7 |
CAR |
25 – 3 W |
4.34 |
38.9% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
13.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.53 /
2.60 |
38.7% /
47.1% |
38.7% /
29.4% |
3.32 /
3.29 |
67 /
62 |
38.0% /
42.9% |
38.8% /
35.5% |
22.0% /
23.5% |
4.51 /
2.79 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
27.4% |
35.77 /
22.00 |
| 8 |
@KC |
17 – 20 L |
-2.21 |
44.4% /
48.0% |
8.3% /
4.0% |
3.0% /
2.1% |
6.33 /
5.22 |
50.0% /
63.0% |
20.0% /
22.2% |
3.60 /
3.96 |
56 /
77 |
52.5% /
55.4% |
46.4% /
53.2% |
47.3% /
12.0% |
5.36 /
4.78 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
35.7% /
35.1% |
21.73 /
35.00 |
| 9 |
LV |
23 – 16 W |
1.71 |
43.5% /
53.2% |
13.0% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.17 /
6.09 |
51.6% /
65.0% |
16.1% /
15.0% |
4.81 /
5.85 |
54 /
67 |
50.0% /
62.3% |
48.1% /
56.7% |
34.4% /
43.1% |
4.54 /
6.01 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
57.4% /
29.9% |
31.11 /
25.60 |
| 11 |
@TB |
10 – 30 L |
-9.65 |
31.7% /
55.1% |
4.9% /
2.0% |
5.1% /
2.1% |
3.63 /
6.29 |
53.8% /
48.1% |
23.1% /
22.2% |
5.08 /
3.48 |
54 /
76 |
42.9% /
53.2% |
37.0% /
52.6% |
33.0% /
18.4% |
3.98 /
5.29 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.1% /
35.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Philadelphia Eagles
@ 
New York Giants