Game Analysis

Note: Seattle is part of a Strong Opinion Teaser with Dallas, but can be played as a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 or better now that the Cowboys’ game has already been played.

Lean/Strong Opinion– Seattle (-7) over CAROLINA

Lean – Over (42.5)

• Two matchup advantages are working in Seattle’s favor on Sunday. On defense, the Seahawks are allowing a league-low -0.20 EPA/rush, and they will shut down a Panthers offense with the 6th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation.
• Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s heavy reliance on play-action (boots, rollouts, crossers, deep overs/posts) targets the seams and deep thirds in Cover 3’s zone structure, pulling eyes from curl/flat players and safeties. Sam Darnold is averaging 21% more yppp versus cover 3 compared to other coverages (6th), and Carolina’s defense has the 3rd-highest cover 3 rate.
• The Panthers’ defense is surrendering a league-high 0.66 EPA/target to opposing tight ends, and they will struggle versus tight end AJ Barner, who has a 65% success rate (2nd).
• Carolina’s upset win over division rival Tampa Bay sets up the Panthers in a negative 26-80-1 ATS letdown situation. The Panthers are also not as good after a win (2-5 ATS, including 0-4 recently) as they’ve been after a loss (7-0 ATS) this season.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points, and Seattle is part of a Strong Opinion Teaser with Dallas.

Seattle can be played as a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 or better if the Teaser doesn’t apply (i.e. you can’t get Dallas at -2.5 or less) or if the Cowboys’ game has already been played.