Game Analysis

Lean – Over (53) – CINCINNATI (-7/-7.5) vs Arizona

• Folks pointing towards the moving parts on Arizona’s offensive line, down four starters, are missing that the guys out are replaceable for the most part. LT Paris Johnson is worth 0.7 points, but the backups are playing just as well as the starters at the other three spots. The Cardinals conceded a 30.3% pressure rate last week (12th) to a Falcons defense with a 9.9% sack rate (3rd).
• Arizona’s injury problems are on the defensive side, as they could be without edge defender Josh Sweat, safety Jalen Thompson, interior defender Walter Nolen, and nickelback Garrett Williams. Those four are worth 2.4 points combined by our metrics.
• Sweat ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency, Nolen has a 16.5% pressure rate compared to backup interior defender Darius Robinson with just a 3.8% pressure rate, and Jalen Thompson has 5 Pass Breakups (9th).
• Cardinals’ backup Jaden Davis is allowing 0.58 yards per cover snap in the slot more than Garrett Williams. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is one of 6 wide receivers averaging more than 2 yards per route run in the slot and has a favorable matchup on the inside across from Davis.
• Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering 0.14 EPA/play (30th), but it jumps to a league-high 0.18 EPA/play when Trey Hendrickson is not on the field this season.
• The Bengals are surrendering 0.47 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (30th) and a league-high 0.45 EPA/target to opposing running backs due to starting rookie linebackers.
• Jacoby Brissett will attack Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter. Cardinals’ tight end Trey McBride leads the NFL averaging 1.78 yards per route run, and Arizona’s offense is targeting running backs on 19.9% of passes (7th-most).
• This game was set up for a massive shootout, but the weather could be a factor with rain in the forecast. Scoring conditions in Cincinnati are expected to be 2.5 points worse than normal, according to our numbers, but there is still value on the over.
• Our model favors the Bengals by 7.5 points, with a predicted total of 56.2 points. I used Arizona +7.5 in my spread pool (and would probably have taken the Cardinals at +7) and lean with the over.