Game Analysis

MIAMI (+5.5) over Tampa Bay

• Baker Mayfield has only one positive EPA game since he appeared to injure himself in week 7, and Tampa Bay’s offense has had run rates 10 percentage points over expectation in five of their last 8 games.
• A banged-up Mayfield will struggle this week as his yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 81% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush, and Miami’s defense has a 41% blitz rate (4th-highest).
• Quinn Ewers averaged 8.7 yppp last week, and he should be able to attack the opposing linebackers again in this game.
• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane is averaging 1.28 yards per route run (5th), and the Buccaneers are surrendering 0.36 EPA/target to opposing running backs (30th).
• However, Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding just a 36.0% rush success rate, and they will shut down Achane as a ball carrier.
• The Dolphins have a 29% play-action rate (5th-highest) and Ewers will spam RPOs against a Buccaneers defense allowing 31% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks (29th).
• Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea has 50 pressures (5th), but he will be limited by C Aaron Brewer, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, but the matchups favor Miami and the Dolphins apply to a 40-6-1 ATS subset of a 77-25-2 ATS situation. I used Miami in my spread pool. Miami would qualify as a Lean at +6 or more.