Game Analysis

LA Rams (-8) vs ATLANTA

• The Rams offense will likely be down two of its most important players on Monday night in RG Kevin Dotson and WR Davante Adams. Dotson and Adams are worth 2 points combined by our numbers.
• Los Angeles lost right guard Kevin Dotson to an ankle injury against the Seahawks, and he is conceding a 4.1% pressure rate compared to backup Justin Dedich allowing a 6.5% pressure rate.
• The Rams average 4.8 yards per carry with Kevin Dotson on the field compared to just 3.0 yards per carry when he’s off the field.
• Los Angeles backup WR Konata Mumpfield is averaging 0.19 EPA/target fewer than Davante Adams.
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has 1,001 yards after contact (3rd) and a league-high 813 yards after catch. Atlanta’s offense should get into their heavy personnel and feature Robinson as the Rams are surrendering 18% more yppp against two wide receiver sets compared to lighter personnel (27th).
• Our model favors Los Angeles by 6.4 points, with a predicted total of 51.0 points, but the Rams apply to a 45-7 ATS situation that applies to teams with extra rest (they last played last Thursday night) after a good offensive performance. I used the Rams in my spread pool.