New England Patriots @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 28
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 425
Odds: New York Jets +13.5, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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New England (-13.5) vs NY JETS

  • Drake Maye completed 4 of 5 passes beyond 20 air yards in Baltimore last week for a career-high 111 yards.
  • However, New England’s downfield passing game took a hit as they will likely be without WR Kayshon Boutte, who has 10 receptions with 20+ air yards (7th).
  • Furthermore, the Jets defense is allowing just a 49% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th), and they will limit TE Hunter Henry, who is averaging 0.39 EPA/target (5th).
  • Unfortunately for New York, the Jets are unlikely to do anything of their own on offense. Brady Cook is averaging a league-low -0.39 EPA/play since he took over as the starter with a league-high 7.3% Turnover Worthy Play Rate.
  • Our model favors the Patriots by 13.4 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points. I used the Jets in my spread pool based on a decent late season big dog situation and a 128-79-6 late-season Under situation applies to this game.
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