Game Analysis

Lean – Under (43) – MINNESOTA (+7.5) vs Detroit

• Detroit’s interior offensive line has been banged up recently, but they will have all three starters on the field this week for the first game since week 9.
• Getting the starting offensive line back will improve the ground game after the Lions ended last Sunday with only 15 rushing yards, their fewest in any game since 2016.
• Detroit’s offense is averaging 0.7 yppl more with Dan Campbell calling the plays compared to offensive coordinator John Morton.
• Campbell will be calling plays on Christmas against a Vikings defense without edge defender Jonathan Greenard, who is worth a half point.
• Lions’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (3rd), but he will be limited by a Minnesota defense that is allowing a league-low -0.37 EPA/target to opposing running backs. Gibbs had just 3 receiving yards in the first game against the Vikings.
• Max Brosmer will be under center for this game, and he is averaging 3.5 yppp compared to JJ McCarthy averaging 5.3 yppp.
• Brosmer will struggle as Minnesota’s offense ranks 26th relatively against man-coverage compared to zone, and Detroit’s defense has a 38% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Vikings’ C Ryan Kelly exited in week 16 with a concussion and was replaced by Michael Jurgens. It was a rough game for Jurgens, who surrendered pressure on 16.7% of pass plays, the worst rate among centers last week. Kelly conceded a 0.6% sack rate compared to Jurgens allowing a 3.8% sack rate.
• Our model favors the Lions by 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 43.5 points but this game applies to a 116-65-5 late-season division Under situation. I used Minnesota in my pool.