Game Analysis

Note: The Strong Opinion Teaser involving Dallas was released when the Cowboys were favored by 7. The Teaser is still a play as long as each leg is -2.5 or less.

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Dallas (-1) with Seattle (-1) both at -2.5 or less

Lean – Under (50.5) – Dallas (-8.5) at WASHINGTON

• I don’t think this price is fully reflecting where this Commanders offense is at without Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, LT Laremy Tunsil, and RG Sam Cosmi.
• Josh Johnson is averaging 5.4 yppp for his career, but he is 39 years old and has only 14 dropbacks in the last two seasons. The last game we saw him get extended work was the NFC Championship when Brock Purdy went out, and Johnson averaged 4.0 yppp. Johnson is averaging 3.5 yppp in a small sample over the last two years. Washington’s offense is averaging 6.1 yppp this season (20th). Johnson is 4.5 points worse than Mariota, who has a 50.3% success rate since the start of last year (11th).
• Tunsil ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency and is worth a half point.
• Cosmi was conceding just a 3.6% pressure rate compared to Washington’s backup right guard, Nick Allegrett, allowing a 6.8% pressure rate. Cosmi is worth an additional 0.5 points according to our numbers.
• Furthermore, the Commanders will likely be without interior defender Daron Payne, who has an 8.6% run stop rate (14th). Payne is worth 0.8 points by our metrics, given backup interior defender Eddie Goldman is also sidelined.
• The only team we would favor this current version of Washington over is the Jets.
• Our model makes Dallas a 9.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.3 points and a 116-65-5 late-season Under situation applies.