Game Analysis

Lean – Over 44 – BUFFAO (-3) vs Philadelphia

• Philadelphia will be getting back All-Pro interior defender Jalen Carter but All-Pro RT Lane Johnson has been downgraded to out. The Eagles are averaging 0.15 EPA/play more with Johnson on the field compared to off in the last four seasons.
• Bills S Jordan Poyer could miss this game, and backup S Cam Lewis has a 22.2% Missed Tackle Rate in run defense.
• Buffalo’s offense is averaging 0.04 EPA/rush (2nd) and the Eagles’ mediocre run defense should be better with Carter back in the lineup.
• The Bills would be better off using play action. Buffalo’s offense has a 31% play action rate (4th-highest), and Philadelphia’s defense is surrendering 32% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks (30th).
• Josh Allen is targeting tight ends on 25.6% of passes (8th-most), but he will struggle as the Eagles defense is conceding a league-low 39% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• The Bills rank 28th relatively against Cover 1 compared to other coverages because Buffalo’s wide receivers do not have the talent to beat man coverage. Philadelphia’s defense has the 5th-highest cover 1 rate.
• Our model favors the Bills by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.8 points. I used the Eagles in my pool.