Game Analysis

Note: The Colts have moved out of Strong Opinion range (+6 or more) and are just a Lean at +5.5 or +5.

Strong Opinion-  INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over Jacksonville

• Philip Rivers is averaging 5.7 yppp with starts at Seattle and home San Francisco. I’m expecting him to be about 5.5 yppp in this game, as he is still without a couple of starters on the offensive line.
• Rivers will be going against a Jaguars defense without nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is allowing just 0.96 yards per cover snap (6th). Lewis is worth 0.6 points according to our metrics.
• Jacksonville center Robert Hainsey and guard Patrick Mekari both suffered injuries and did not return to the field last week. Hainsey and Mekari are likely out, putting Trevor Lawrence behind an offensive line missing two starters just like Rivers.
• The Colts got back interior defender DeForest Buckner last week. Buckner ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from the backups on the interior of the Jaguars’ offensive line.
• Indianapolis could get back starting cornerback Sauce Gardner on Sunday. Gardner is allowing 0.74 yards per cover snap fewer than backup CB Johnathan Edwards.
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 6.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points. The line is fair, but Jacksonville applies to a very negative 52-131-5 ATS situation that is worth playing.

Indianapolis is a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.