Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41.5) – NY Giants (-2.5) vs LAS VEGAS

• This one is turning into a game of who can out-tank the other for the first overall pick. The Raiders are benching edge rusher Maxx Crosby, TE Brock Bowers, and not bringing back LT Kolton Miller even though he’s practiced for 3 straight weeks. Meanwhile, Giants LT Andrew Thomas will be sidelined along with S Tyler Nubin.
• Las Vegas has a 37% pressure rate with Crosby on the field since 2022, compared to only a 32% pressure rate with him off the field. Crosby is worth 1.6 points by our metrics.
• Bowers is on injured reserve, and he is worth 1.2 points according to our numbers. Bowers is averaging 0.52 EPA/target more than the Raiders backup TE Michael Mayer.
• Las Vegas is averaging a league-low -0.20 EPA/play since losing starting LT Kolton Miller, who ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency through the first month of the season before a high-ankle sprain and hairline fracture. Raiders’ backup left tackle Stone Forsythe ranks last in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying tackles since the start of October. New York edge rusher Abdul Carter has 54 pressures (14th), and the rookie will wreak havoc across from Forsythe.
• The Giants are averaging 5.1 yppl with Thomas on the field in the last four seasons compared to just 4.6 yppl without him. New York’s offense is 0.12 EPA/play worse without Thomas on the field since 2022, and he is worth 3 points.
• The Giants finished last Sunday’s loss with 28 called runs against 19 Jaxson Dart dropbacks, but Dart will need to throw more often this week as Las Vegas is conceding only 3.8 yards per carry (4th).
• Dart has a favorable matchup as New York’s offense leads the NFL averaging 36% more yppp against cover 3 compared to other coverages, and the Raiders have the 2nd-highest cover 3 rate.
• Our model favors the Giants by 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points. Lean Under.