Game Analysis

Lean – Under (52.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-3) vs Chicago

• Chicago’s win probability was below 1% before recovering an onside kick coming out of the two-minute warning last week, but the Bears somehow came out victorious and now have won six games in which they trailed in the final two minutes, which is the most such wins for any team since the 1970 merger.
• Caleb Williams averaged 7.4 yppp against the Packers without wide receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, who should be back on the field this week. Burden is averaging 0.14 EPA/target more than Odunze.
• The 49ers have a 78% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest) and could limit Williams, who ranks 27th relatively against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.
• San Francisco’s offense should get back WR Ricky Pearsall, but TE George Kittle will likely be sidelined. Kittle leads the NFL averaging 0.77 EPA/target.
• The 49ers are averaging 1.2 more yppl with Kittle on the field since 2022 and 0.13 more EPA/play. Kittle is worth 1.3 points according to our numbers.
• San Francisco’s offense has the 3rd-highest heavy personnel rate, but they should go lighter without Kittle on Sunday night, particularly because Chicago’s defense yppp allowed against heavy personnel is only 89% of the yppp allowed versus lighter personnel (3rd).
• Our model favors the 49ers by 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points. The situation does favor the 49ers, as Chicago applies to a 31-90-2 ATS road letdown situation and we get SF by 2.8 points with all things considered.