Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *CLEVELAND (+4 -115) over Pittsburgh

• Aaron Rodgers’ win in Detroit last week was completely unrepeatable. Rodgers picked up 9 conversions on late downs against the Lions – his most in a game since 2019. Furthermore, Rodgers completed 5 of 8 passes for a season-high 85 yards against pressure.
• Steelers’ wide receiver DK Metcalf is suspended for this game. Pittsburgh’s offense becomes non-functional without Metcalf’s vertical threat. The Steelers are averaging 3.5 yppl without Metcalf on the field. Metcalf is averaging 0.47 EPA/target more than backup WR Calvin Austin, which works out to 3.1 points based on Metcalf’s 6.6 targets per game (although we adjusted 2.1 points to be conservative).
• Cleveland’s defense leads the NFL with a 62% single-high safety rate and will shut down Pittsburgh’s offense without a serious deep threat. The Steelers already rank 27th relatively against single-high compared to two-high coverages in the games with Metcalf.
• Pittsburgh’s offense is targeting tight ends on 30.8% of passes (4th-most), and it will likely go up without Metcalf, but the Steelers’ tight ends will be contained as Cleveland’s defense is conceding just 0.11 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (8th).
• Browns’ All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett has a league-high 22.0 sacks, and he will wreak havoc across from Pittsburgh’s backup LT Dylan Cook.
• Garrett also makes opposing ground game play with one arm behind their backs as they try to avoid Garrett. Bills RB James Cook did not have a single carry to the outside left of the formation last week (Myles Garrett’s side of the field).
• The Steelers are averaging 0.01 EPA/rush (4th), but they will be shut down as Cleveland’s defense is conceding a league-low 35.4% rush success rate.
• Shedeur Sanders is averaging 13.1 yards per pass play on screens. For reference, the league average over the last decade is 5.6 yppp on screens. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanki will attack Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen, who has surrendered a league-high 735 yards in his coverage
• Pittsburgh CB Brandin Echols is likely out, and his being sidelined forced the Steelers to put Jalen Ramsey back at nickelback, where he was for the first 8 weeks of the season when they surrendered 0.09 EPA/play (25th). Pittsburgh’s defense was allowing -0.03 EPA/play (10th) in the second half of the season with Ramsey at free safety.
• I’m not counting on this, but it’s totally plausible the Steelers rest borderline players such as edge rusher TJ Watt and LG Issac Seumalo because there’s a chance this is a meaningless game. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a Baltimore loss on Saturday night.
• The situation also favors Cleveland, as the Browns apply to a 55-21-1 ATS late-season home underdog situation (that plays on teams out of the playoff race).
• Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is relatively better against better teams and off a loss under coach Tomlin and the Steelers are just 6-23 ATS as a road favorite of more than 3 points after a victory.
• Our model favors the Steelers by just 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 33.4 points, and the matchups and the situation favors Cleveland.

Cleveland is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +3 -110 odds or better).