Game Analysis

NY Jets (-3.5/-3) vs JACKSONVILLE

• Aaron Rodgers threw for over 300 yards last week for the first time since December 2021 but New York was officially eliminated from the postseason for the 14th-straight year.
• Rodgers has a favorable matchup this week as the Jets are averaging 15% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush than the blitz (5th) and the Jaguars lead the NFL with an 85% standard pass rush rate.
• However, New York starting RT Morgan Moses could be sidelined – forcing backup Max Mitchell to slot in opposite backup rookie backup left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who will struggle on Sunday. Fashanu will line up across from Jacksonville edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who has 51 pressures (11th).
• The Jets’ running backs have a 21% target share (5th-highest) and Rodgers will get the ball out quickly in the screen game as the Jaguars are surrendering 0.34 EPA/target to opposing running backs (31st).
• Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas saw a 40% target share against the Titans, but Mac Jones won’t be able to lock onto the rookie in this game as New York’s defense is getting back starting CB Sauce Gardner. Jets backup cornerback Brandin Echols is surrendering 1.23 yards per cover snap compared to Gardner allowing only 0.90 yards per cover snap.
• The Jaguars’ yppp versus Cover 1 is only 76% of the yppp against other coverages (30th) and Jones will struggle as New York’s defense has the 5th-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Our model favors the Jets by 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 40.5 points, but Jacksonville applies to a 206-106-6 ATS contrary situation that plays on bad teams that have been struggling offensively in recent games.  I used Jaguars at +3.5 in my pool but would prefer the Jets at -3.