Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (-1.5) with Buffalo (+8.5)

Lean – Washington (-7.5) over New Orleans

• Derek Carr fell over two players and landed on his head last week against the Giants. Carr fractured his left, non-throwing hand, and sustained his third concussion in the previous two years. Jake Haener will likely be starting for the Saints this week, but it could be Spencer Rattler.
• Washington’s defense has the 7th-highest man coverage rate in the NFL, and they are about to upgrade with man-specialist CB Marshon Lattimore set to make his first start for the Commanders after being traded from New Orleans last month. Lattimore is conceding 0.32 yards per cover snap while Washington’s current starters Mike Sainristil and Benjamin St-Juste are respectively allowing 1.07 and 1.37 yards per cover snap.
• Saints LT Taliese Fuaga has surrendered 31 pressures (9th-most) and he will struggle across from edge defender Dante Fowler, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• New Orleans will not be able to control Washington’s pass rush with the screen game despite Alvin Kamara leading running backs with 1.64 yards per route run. The Commanders are conceding a 40% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (8th).
• The Saints are surrendering 0.02 EPA/rush (29th) and there will be lanes to run through for a Commanders’ attack with a 46% rush success rate (2nd).
• The Commanders have a 32% play action rate (4th-highest) and Jayden Daniels  should connect on some deeps passing using the play fakes, as New Orleans is surrendering 31% more yppp against play action than no play action (29th)
• The Saints have the 6th-highest Cover 1 rate and lead the NFL with a 25% Cover 2 rate. Washington’s yppp versus Cover 1 and Cover 2 is 85% of the yppp against other coverages.
• However, I do not expect Jayden Daniels to be limited too much because he has a favorable matchup to attack on the outside. New Orleans CB Alontae Taylor is surrendering a league-high 1.76 yards per cover snap and he will line up across from WR Terry McLaurin, who leads the NFL averaging 0.77 EPA/target.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 10.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.5 points, and Washington applies to a 91-33-5 ATS favorite off a bye week situation.

• Only 5 of Bills’ QB Josh Allen’s 24 losses in the last 4 seasons have been by more than 8.5 points because he has the ability to rachet it up when down multiple scores against prevent defense – as we saw last week with the Rams up by 17 points at the start of the 4th quarter in what ended in a 2-point Bills’ loss. The market is implying the Lions win probability is 56%. Multiply 56% by 5/24 (11%) and you get 12% – or, 88% that the Bills don’t lose by 9 points or more. The breakeven point for covering a 6-point (-120) teaser leg is 74%.

We are using Washington in a 1-Star Best Bet Teaser with Buffalo +8.5 – good at Washington -2.5 or less and Buffalo +7.5 or more.