Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SEATTLE (+2.5 Even) over Green Bay

• Green Bay’s offense ranks 9th in EPA/rush but Josh Jacobs is running into a buzzsaw Seahawks defense conceding only a 37% rush success rate since trading for LB Ernest Jones – compared to allowing a 42% rush success rate before the trade.
• This game rests squarely on Jordan Love’s ability to create explosives in the passing department but I’m skeptical he will do so like last week when WR Christian Watson gained 108 yards versus Lions CB Carlton Davis. Watson has a more challenging matchup downfield on Sunday night across from Seattle CB Tariq Woolen, who is allowing just 0.72 yards per cover snap (6th).
• The Packers’ defense will likely be without starting nickelback Javon Bullard and this is the wrong game for him to miss as they’ll be scrambling on the inside against WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 59% success rate ranks 12th.
• Green Bay’s defense is surrendering a 51% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (29th) and will struggle versus screens to RB Zach Charbonnet and RB Kenneth Walker, who is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (9th).
• The Seahawks’ offensive line has improved with Abraham Lucas starting at right tackle, allowing a 29% pressure rate in the last 4 games compared to surrendering a 35% pressure rate before the bye week.
• Geno Smith is averaging 21% more yppp versus Cover 2 compared to other coverages (9th) and Seattle’s offense has a favorable matchup as the Packers have the 5th-highest Cover 2 rate.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points.

Strong Opinion on Seattle at +2 or more.