Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Over (22.5 -115) – LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Tampa Bay

Alternate play is game over (45.5) to 46

• Justin Herbert was dinged up last week in Kansas City and missed practice on Wednesday, but he was a full participant by Friday, and we’re expecting him to be at least 80% of himself versus a Buccaneers defense with numerous injuries of its own.
• Tampa Bay All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield has a knee sprain which is expected to keep him sidelined for a few weeks. The Buccaneers are also down other starting safety Jordan Whitehead, backup S Mike Edwards, and starting linebacker KJ Britt. The cluster loss in the deep part of the field plus Britt is worth about a point and a half by our numbers and I expect Herbert to attack down the field on Sunday.
• Herbert is averaging 29% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man coverage (4th) and he has a favorable matchup as Tampa Bay’s defense has an 86% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Herbert will also benefit from Los Angeles likely getting back WR Ladd McConkey, who missed the last game and is averaging 0.60 EPA/target (7th).
• Buccaneers’ edge defender Yaya Diaby has 52 pressures (9th) but he will be contained by LT Rashawn Slater, who ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Tampa Bay’s offense revolves around the running backs as the Buccaneers are averaging 0.01 EPA/rush (6th) and targeting running backs on 22% of passes (4th-most) but RBs Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, as well as Sean Tucker are likely to be shut down in this game.
• The Chargers have the 7th-rated rush defense by our numbers and are allowing a league-low -0.32 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• Baker Mayfield will have to look into the intermediate areas featuring WR Mike Evans, whose 60% success rate ranks 8th.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 49.8 points.

Strong Opinion on the First-Half Over 23 points or less (full game over 46 or less if you don’t have first-half lines).