Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – DENVER (-4) over Indianapolis

• Indianapolis might be getting back starting C Ryan Kelly this week but there are two starters remaining out on the Colts offensive line versus a Broncos defense with a 39% pressure rate (2nd).
• The Colts yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 78% of their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush and Anthony Richardson will struggle as Denver’s defense has a 42% blitz rate (3rd-highest).
• Indianapolis WR Alec Pierce has a 23.2-yard average depth of target (2nd) and 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (7th) but he will be shut down by CB Pat Surtain, who is conceding a league-low 0.48 yards per cover snap.
• Colts WR Josh Downs will be back on the field this week and he is averaging 2.27 yards per route run in the slot (5th). Downs has a favorable matchup across from Broncos nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian, who is allowing 1.49 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).
• Indianapolis has the 9th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation, but the ground game will be contained as Denver’s defense is conceding only a 36% rush success rate (4th).
• Bo Nix is averaging a league-high 42% more yppp versus Cover 2 compared to other coverages and he will be prolific against a Colts defense with the 6th-highest Cover 2 rate.
• The game has massive playoff implications with Indianapolis rising to 65% with a win and dropping to 8% with a loss. The must-win nature of the game for the Colts has seen them bet from an opener of Broncos -5.5 but we do not buy into must-win games, especially when Denver can virtually lock up the postseason with a win themselves. If the Colts were good enough to play well when they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation and the move from 5.5 to 4 is line value we’ll take.
• Our model favors Denver by 6.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.4 points, and the Broncos apply to a 79-27-2 ATS favorite off a bye angle and they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Broncos are a Strong Opinion at -5 or less.