Game Analysis

Lean – Pittsburgh (+5/+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA

• Jalen Hurts had his lowest dropback success rate of the season last week at only 38% and he averaged a season-low 6.2 air yards per attempt against the Panthers.
• I expect Hurts to throw deep more often this week to wide receiver AJ Brown. Eagles RT Lane Johnson ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will limit edge defender TJ Watt, who has 9.5 sacks (7th).
• Pittsburgh’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 86% of the yards per attempt versus the blitz and Russell Wilson’s downfield passing attack could be shut down on Sunday as Philadelphia’s defense has a 74% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest) and can put extra bodies in the deep part of the field to put a roof on the Steelers aerial attack.
• Furthermore, Pittsburgh WR George Pickens is likely out and he leads the NFL with 14 receptions with 20+ air yards.
• The Steelers RBs have a 24% target share (3rd-highest) but the screen game will be held in check by an Eagles’ defense that is allowing just -0.10 EPA/target to opposing running backs (6th).
• Our model makes Philadelphia a 5.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 44.0 points, but I’m going to lean with the Steelers, who play their best when they’re not expected to win. Pittsburgh is 64-28-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog or pick in regular season games under Mike Tomlin, including 5-0 straight up in that role this season.