Game Analysis

Lean – Under (46.5) – Cincinnati (-5.5) vs TENNESSEE

• Cincinnati WR Ja’Marr Chase set a record with 122 yards on out-breaking routes last Monday night and I expect the Bengals to get him isolated on the outside this week across from backup CB Jarvis Brownlee, who is surrendering 1.52 yards per cover snap (5th-worst).
• Joe Burrow leads the NFL averaging 46% more yppp versus Cover 4 than other coverages and he has a favorable matchup as Tennessee’s defense has been forced into a league-high 25% Cover 4 rate without both starting outside cornerbacks for most of this season.
• Titans nickelback Roger McCreary missed last week but he could be back on the field in this game, and he is conceding just 0.95 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).
• Tennessee’s defense is allowing just a 49% success rate to opposing tight ends (7th) and they will limit TE Mike Gesicki, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (4th).
• Cincinnati LG Cordell Volson ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle against interior defender Jeffery Simmons, whose 34 pressures rank 17th.
• The Titans offense has the 8th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation and they have a favorable matchup on the ground as the Bengals are surrendering a 46% rush success rate (31st).
• Cincinnati cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt is allowing 1.51 yards per cover snap (6th-worst) and Will Levis will attack his side of the field with WR Calvin Ridley, who is averaging a target share per game rate of 30% since the DeAndre Hopkins trade.
• Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson leads the NFL with 12.5 sacks, and he will wreak havoc across from rookie left tackle JC Latham, who has surrendered 34 pressures (6th-most).
• Our model makes Cincinnati a 4.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.6 points.